Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 10
Moreirense vs Estrela
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 15:30 UTC · Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Conegos
Moreirense host Estrela on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (Primeira Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Moreirense 39%, draw 29%, Estrela 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Moreirense €1.0M, Estrela €1.3M.
- Home advantage makes Moreirense the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Draw chance 29%, above the Primeira Liga average of 23% this round.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Moreirense goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Moreirense 1675 · Estrela 1711
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Moreirense · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Elite) · Elo 1657
Estrela · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1798
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Moreirense
12th in Primeira Liga · 8 pts from 8
- 9 OctLGIL Vicente Primeira Liga1724
- 20 SepDVitória SC Primeira Liga1719
- 14 SepWMaritimo Primeira Liga1700
- 9 SepLBenfica Primeira Liga1653
- 4 SepLFC Porto Primeira Liga1646
Estrela
10th in Primeira Liga · 10 pts from 8
- 11 OctLArouca Primeira Liga1746
- 20 SepLAcademico Viseu Primeira Liga1777
- 14 SepDRio Ave Primeira Liga1749
- 10 SepWSC Braga Primeira Liga1678
- 5 SepDFamalicao Primeira Liga1745
Season outlook
From the Primeira Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | 8 /8 | 36.6 | 0% | <1% | 24% | 14th |
| Estrela | 10 /8 | 39.5 | 0% | 1% | 12% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Moreirense: balanced profile (how Vasco Maria de Albuquerque Botelho da Costa plays) · Estrela: direct (how Pedro Miguel Marques da Costa Filipe plays)