Ligue 2 · Regular Season - 12
Montpellier vs Metz
Fri 6 Nov 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier
Montpellier host Metz on Fri 6 Nov 2026 (Ligue 2); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Montpellier 49%, draw 27%, Metz 24%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Montpellier €831K, Metz €885K.
- Style contrast in discipline (Ligue 2): Montpellier rank #17 of 19, Metz #2.
- Montpellier's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.0 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Montpellier goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–26%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Montpellier 1750 · Metz 1651
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Montpellier · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 1836
Metz · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 1728
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Montpellier
2nd in Ligue 2 · 18 pts from 9
- 19 OctWRodez France Ligue 21731
- 9 OctWGrenoble France Ligue 21724
- 18 SepDReims France Ligue 21753
- 11 SepWPAU France Ligue 21729
- 5 SepLSaint Etienne France Ligue 21736
Metz
7th in Ligue 2 · 13 pts from 9
- 17 OctWSochaux France Ligue 21648
- 12 OctLDijon France Ligue 21676
- 19 SepDSaint Etienne France Ligue 21663
- 14 SepLRED Star FC 93 France Ligue 21659
- 5 SepWRodez France Ligue 21637
Season outlook
From the Ligue 2 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier | 18 /9 | 59.2 | 8% | 74% | 0% | 3rd |
| Metz | 13 /9 | 47.1 | <1% | 10% | 2% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Montpellier: balanced profile (how Zoumana Camara plays) · Metz: balanced profile (how Luc Holtz plays)