Ligue 2 · Regular Season - 8
Montpellier 2–0 Grenoble
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier
MontpellierTeam 1736GrenobleTeam 1598We gave Montpellier 52% to win: they did.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 52% · 28% · 21%(Montpellier · draw · Grenoble)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 2–0 had 10%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Montpellier €635K, Grenoble €411K.
- Montpellier's expected eleven was in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.7 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Montpellier
4th in Ligue 2 · 12 pts from 7
- 18 SepDReims France Ligue 21753
- 11 SepWPAU France Ligue 21729
- 5 SepLSaint Etienne France Ligue 21736
- 28 AugDBoulogne France Ligue 21720
- 21 AugWDunkerque France Ligue 21709
Grenoble
13th in Ligue 2 · 8 pts from 7
- 18 SepDClermont Foot France Ligue 21593
- 11 SepWRodez France Ligue 21558
- 4 SepLAnnecy France Ligue 21565
- 28 AugWLaval France Ligue 21551
- 22 AugLSaint Etienne France Ligue 21534
Season outlook
From the Ligue 2 simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier | 12 /7 | 54.6 | 5% | 48% | <1% | 3rd |
| Grenoble | 8 /7 | 44.2 | <1% | 5% | 7% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Montpellier · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1796
Grenoble · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1699
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Montpellier: balanced profile (how Zoumana Camara plays) · Grenoble: balanced profile (how Olivier Frapolli plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.