Liga MX · Apertura - 14
Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Estadio BBVA, Monterrey
Monterrey host Guadalajara Chivas on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Liga MX); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Monterrey 42%, draw 29%, Guadalajara Chivas 29%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Monterrey €2.9M, Guadalajara Chivas €4.0M.
- Home advantage makes Monterrey the favourite here: it adds 10 points to their win chance; Liga MX has one of the three largest home advantages of our 20 competitions.
- Liga MX: J. Rangel is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2235).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Monterrey goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Monterrey 1993 · Guadalajara Chivas 2030
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Monterrey · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Good) · Elo 1912
Guadalajara Chivas · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 2205
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Monterrey
8th in Liga MX · 17 pts from 11
- 19 OctWCF Pachuca Liga MX1973
- 11 OctDClub America Liga MX1971
- 26 SepLAtlante FC Liga MX1962
- 20 SepWCruz Azul Liga MX1979
- 13 SepDTigres UANL Liga MX1987
Guadalajara Chivas
4th in Liga MX · 20 pts from 12
- 17 OctDTigres UANL Liga MX2002
- 11 OctDAtlas Liga MX2023
- 26 SepLClub Queretaro Liga MX1997
- 20 SepDClub America Liga MX2078
- 14 SepWU.N.A.M. - Pumas Liga MX2007
Season outlook
From the Liga MX simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monterrey | 17 /11 | 25.6 | 1% | 19% | <1% | 7th |
| Guadalajara Chivas | 20 /12 | 28.4 | 5% | 53% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Monterrey: possession-based (how Matías Jesús Almeyda plays) · Guadalajara Chivas: balanced profile (how Gabriel Alejandro Milito plays)