Primera División · Clausura - 12
Monagas SC 2–1 Estudiantes de Merida FC
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 22:00 UTC
Monagas SCTeam 1346
Estudiantes de Merida FCTeam 1306- F. Basante 11', 24'
- J. Lobo 65'
We gave Monagas SC 45% to win: they did.
- F. Basante – assist H. Diaz –11'
Monagas SC:F. Basante – assist H. Diaz – - F. Basante – assist E. Carrion –24'
Monagas SC:F. Basante – assist E. Carrion – - 39'J. Hernandez – for C. Magallan –
Estudiantes de Merida FC:J. Hernandez – for C. Magallan – - F. Jaramillo –41'
Monagas SC:F. Jaramillo – - E. Carrion –45+2'
Monagas SC:E. Carrion – - K. De La Hoz –49'
Monagas SC:K. De La Hoz – - L. Rodriguez – for E. Carrion –57'
Monagas SC:L. Rodriguez – for E. Carrion – - S. Asibe – for A. Romero –57'
Monagas SC:S. Asibe – for A. Romero – - 65'J. Lobo – assist J. Hernandez –
Estudiantes de Merida FC:J. Lobo – assist J. Hernandez – - 69'H. Acosta –
Estudiantes de Merida FC:H. Acosta – - F. Basante –69'
Monagas SC:F. Basante – - S. Natera – for H. Diaz –70'
Monagas SC:S. Natera – for H. Diaz – - A. Romero – for L. Gonzalez –70'
Monagas SC:A. Romero – for L. Gonzalez – - 73'C. Rodriguez –
Estudiantes de Merida FC:C. Rodriguez – - 76'A. Montero – for J. Lobo –
Estudiantes de Merida FC:A. Montero – for J. Lobo – - 76'R. Chacon – for C. Rodriguez –
Estudiantes de Merida FC:R. Chacon – for C. Rodriguez – - A. Rodas – for F. Basante –80'
Monagas SC:A. Rodas – for F. Basante – - 89'Y. Lacruz – for D. Matheus –
Estudiantes de Merida FC:Y. Lacruz – for D. Matheus – - 89'M. Maldonado – for J. A. Montilla Maldonado –
Estudiantes de Merida FC:M. Maldonado – for J. A. Montilla Maldonado – - 90+1'L. Caicedo –
Estudiantes de Merida FC:L. Caicedo – - A. Romero –90+2'
Monagas SC:A. Romero –
Before kick-off (provisional): 45% · 28% · 27%(Monagas SC · draw · Estudiantes de Merida FC)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 2–1 had 9%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Monagas SC €244K, Estudiantes de Merida FC €210K.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Monagas SC
10th in Primera División · 25 pts from 24
- 16 SepWZamora FC Venezuela Primera Division1364
- 13 SepWCaracas FC Venezuela Primera Division1328
- 6 SepLMetropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division1328
- 3 SepWAnzoátegui FC Venezuela Primera Division1292
- 25 AprDPuerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division1224
Estudiantes de Merida FC
8th in Primera División · 36 pts from 24
- 16 SepLPortuguesa FC Venezuela Primera Division1270
- 12 SepWDeportivo Tachira FC Venezuela Primera Division1267
- 7 SepLCarabobo FC Venezuela Primera Division1272
- 3 SepDUCV Venezuela Primera Division1293
- 31 MayLDeportivo Tachira FC Venezuela Primera Division1327
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monagas SC | 25 /24 | 27.6 | 0% | 0% | 11% | 10th |
| Estudiantes de Merida FC | 36 /24 | 38.4 | 0% | 5% | 0% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 14th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Monagas SC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.8 (Below) · Elo 1623
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –