Primera División · Clausura - Quadrangular - 4
Monagas SC vs Caracas FC
Tue 3 Nov 2026 · 21:30 UTC
Monagas SC host Caracas FC on Tue 3 Nov 2026 (Primera División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Monagas SC 41%, draw 29%, Caracas FC 30%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Monagas SC €269K, Caracas FC €260K.
- Home advantage makes Monagas SC the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Monagas SC goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–07%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Monagas SC 1360 · Caracas FC 1364
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Monagas SC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.4 (Below) · Elo 1621
Caracas FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.0 (Average) · Elo 1496
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Monagas SC
10th in Primera División · 29 pts from 26
- 18 OctDPuerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division1340
- 16 SepWZamora FC Venezuela Primera Division1364
- 13 SepWCaracas FC Venezuela Primera Division1328
- 6 SepLMetropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division1328
- 3 SepWAnzoátegui FC Venezuela Primera Division1292
Caracas FC
9th in Primera División · 32 pts from 26
- 18 OctWRayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division1337
- 16 SepLMetropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division1359
- 13 SepLMonagas SC Venezuela Primera Division1360
- 6 SepWTrujillanos FC Venezuela Primera Division1304
- 2 SepDPortuguesa FC Venezuela Primera Division1326
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monagas SC | 29 /26 | 36.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10th |
| Caracas FC | 32 /26 | 39.4 | 0% | <1% | 0% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 14th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: direct · low-volume