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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 6

Monaco 2–2 Toulouse

Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Stade Louis II, Monaco

Monaco crestMonacoTeam 2140
2–2
Full time
HT 2–0
Toulouse crestToulouseTeam 1805

Match story

Monaco · draw · Toulouse

Before kick-off: 69% · 19% · 12%

Live chances: Monaco 1%, draw 98%, Toulouse 1% at 90+6'1' · 0–0 · Monaco 69%, draw 19%, Toulouse 12%2' · 0–0 · Monaco 69%, draw 20%, Toulouse 12%3' · 0–0 · Monaco 68%, draw 20%, Toulouse 12%4' · 0–0 · Monaco 68%, draw 20%, Toulouse 12%5' · 0–0 · Monaco 68%, draw 20%, Toulouse 12%6' · 0–0 · Monaco 68%, draw 20%, Toulouse 12%7' · 0–0 · Monaco 67%, draw 20%, Toulouse 12%8' · 0–0 · Monaco 67%, draw 21%, Toulouse 12%9' · 0–0 · Monaco 67%, draw 21%, Toulouse 12%10' · 0–0 · Monaco 67%, draw 21%, Toulouse 12%11' · 0–0 · Monaco 66%, draw 21%, Toulouse 12%12' · 0–0 · Monaco 66%, draw 21%, Toulouse 13%13' · 0–0 · Monaco 66%, draw 22%, Toulouse 13%14' · 0–0 · Monaco 66%, draw 22%, Toulouse 13%15' · 0–0 · Monaco 65%, draw 22%, Toulouse 13%16' · 0–0 · Monaco 65%, draw 22%, Toulouse 13%17' · 0–0 · Monaco 65%, draw 22%, Toulouse 13%18' · 0–0 · Monaco 64%, draw 23%, Toulouse 13%19' · 0–0 · Monaco 64%, draw 23%, Toulouse 13%20' · 0–0 · Monaco 64%, draw 23%, Toulouse 13%21' · 0–0 · Monaco 64%, draw 23%, Toulouse 13%22' · 0–0 · Monaco 63%, draw 24%, Toulouse 13%23' · 0–0 · Monaco 63%, draw 24%, Toulouse 13%24' · 0–0 · Monaco 63%, draw 24%, Toulouse 13%25' · 0–0 · Monaco 62%, draw 24%, Toulouse 13%26' · 0–0 · Monaco 62%, draw 25%, Toulouse 13%27' · 0–0 · Monaco 62%, draw 25%, Toulouse 14%28' · 0–0 · Monaco 61%, draw 25%, Toulouse 14%29' · 0–0 · Monaco 61%, draw 25%, Toulouse 14%30' · 1–0 · Monaco 86%, draw 11%, Toulouse 3%31' · 1–0 · Monaco 86%, draw 11%, Toulouse 3%32' · 1–0 · Monaco 85%, draw 11%, Toulouse 3%33' · 1–0 · Monaco 85%, draw 11%, Toulouse 3%34' · 1–0 · Monaco 85%, draw 11%, Toulouse 3%35' · 1–0 · Monaco 85%, draw 11%, Toulouse 3%36' · 1–0 · Monaco 85%, draw 11%, Toulouse 3%37' · 1–0 · Monaco 85%, draw 12%, Toulouse 3%38' · 1–0 · Monaco 85%, draw 12%, Toulouse 3%39' · 2–0 · Monaco 97%, draw 2%, Toulouse 0%40' · 2–0 · Monaco 97%, draw 2%, Toulouse 0%41' · 2–0 · Monaco 97%, draw 2%, Toulouse 0%42' · 2–0 · Monaco 97%, draw 2%, Toulouse 0%43' · 2–0 · Monaco 97%, draw 2%, Toulouse 0%44' · 2–0 · Monaco 97%, draw 2%, Toulouse 0%45' · 2–0 · Monaco 97%, draw 2%, Toulouse 0%45+1' · 2–0 · Monaco 97%, draw 2%, Toulouse 0%45+2' · 2–0 · Monaco 97%, draw 2%, Toulouse 0%45+3' · 2–0 · Monaco 97%, draw 2%, Toulouse 0%HT · 2–0 · Monaco 97%, draw 2%, Toulouse 0%47' · 2–0 · Monaco 97%, draw 2%, Toulouse 0%48' · 2–0 · Monaco 97%, draw 2%, Toulouse 0%49' · 2–1 · Monaco 85%, draw 12%, Toulouse 3%50' · 2–1 · Monaco 85%, draw 12%, Toulouse 3%51' · 2–1 · Monaco 85%, draw 12%, Toulouse 3%52' · 2–1 · Monaco 85%, draw 12%, Toulouse 3%53' · 2–1 · Monaco 85%, draw 12%, Toulouse 3%54' · 2–1 · Monaco 85%, draw 12%, Toulouse 3%55' · 2–1 · Monaco 85%, draw 12%, Toulouse 3%56' · 2–1 · Monaco 85%, draw 12%, Toulouse 2%57' · 2–1 · Monaco 85%, draw 12%, Toulouse 2%58' · 2–1 · Monaco 85%, draw 12%, Toulouse 2%59' · 2–1 · Monaco 85%, draw 12%, Toulouse 2%60' · 2–2 · Monaco 44%, draw 42%, Toulouse 14%61' · 2–2 · Monaco 43%, draw 42%, Toulouse 14%62' · 2–2 · Monaco 43%, draw 43%, Toulouse 14%63' · 2–2 · Monaco 42%, draw 44%, Toulouse 14%64' · 2–2 · Monaco 41%, draw 45%, Toulouse 14%65' · 2–2 · Monaco 40%, draw 46%, Toulouse 14%66' · 2–2 · Monaco 40%, draw 47%, Toulouse 14%67' · 2–2 · Monaco 39%, draw 47%, Toulouse 14%68' · 2–2 · Monaco 38%, draw 48%, Toulouse 14%69' · 2–2 · Monaco 37%, draw 49%, Toulouse 13%70' · 2–2 · Monaco 36%, draw 50%, Toulouse 13%71' · 2–2 · Monaco 36%, draw 51%, Toulouse 13%72' · 2–2 · Monaco 35%, draw 52%, Toulouse 13%73' · 2–2 · Monaco 34%, draw 54%, Toulouse 13%74' · 2–2 · Monaco 33%, draw 55%, Toulouse 12%75' · 2–2 · Monaco 32%, draw 56%, Toulouse 12%76' · 2–2 · Monaco 31%, draw 57%, Toulouse 12%77' · 2–2 · Monaco 30%, draw 58%, Toulouse 12%78' · 2–2 · Monaco 29%, draw 60%, Toulouse 11%79' · 2–2 · Monaco 28%, draw 61%, Toulouse 11%80' · 2–2 · Monaco 26%, draw 63%, Toulouse 11%81' · 2–2 · Monaco 25%, draw 64%, Toulouse 10%82' · 2–2 · Monaco 24%, draw 66%, Toulouse 10%83' · 2–2 · Monaco 23%, draw 67%, Toulouse 10%84' · 2–2 · Monaco 22%, draw 69%, Toulouse 9%85' · 2–2 · Monaco 20%, draw 71%, Toulouse 9%86' · 2–2 · Monaco 19%, draw 73%, Toulouse 8%87' · 2–2 · Monaco 18%, draw 75%, Toulouse 8%88' · 2–2 · Monaco 16%, draw 77%, Toulouse 7%89' · 2–2 · Monaco 15%, draw 79%, Toulouse 7%90' · 2–2 · Monaco 13%, draw 81%, Toulouse 6%90+1' · 2–2 · Monaco 11%, draw 84%, Toulouse 5%90+2' · 2–2 · Monaco 9%, draw 86%, Toulouse 4%90+3' · 2–2 · Monaco 7%, draw 89%, Toulouse 3%90+4' · 2–2 · Monaco 5%, draw 92%, Toulouse 3%90+5' · 2–2 · Monaco 3%, draw 95%, Toulouse 2%90+6' · 2–2 · Monaco 1%, draw 98%, Toulouse 1%

Last reading, 90+6': 1% · 98% · 1%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Monaco 69% to win: it ended in a draw.

  1. 29'Monaco:Edan Diop 1843 −8* assist Aleksandr Golovin 2226 −12*
  2. 38'Monaco:Matthis Abline 1929 −8* assist Edan Diop 1843 −8*
  3. 45'Toulouse:Sion Oppong 1499 +38* for Jacen Russell-Rowe 1992 −3*
  4. 47'Monaco:Flavio Nazinho 2144 −8*
  5. 48'Toulouse:Casper Tengstedt 1935 +24* (pen.)
  6. 51'Monaco:Safouane Benzahra 1743 −8* for Denis Zakaria 2266 −11*
  7. 54'Monaco:Aleksandr Golovin 2226 −12*
  8. 58'Monaco:Folarin Balogun 2186 −8* for Mathys Detourbet 1777 −8*
  9. 58'Monaco:Stanis Idumbo 1971 −8* for Edan Diop 1843 −8*
  10. 59'Toulouse:Sion Oppong 1499 +38* assist Casper Tengstedt 1935 +24*
  11. 70'Toulouse:Cristian Casseres 2034 0*
  12. 71'Toulouse:Niko Sigur 1857 −4* for Ilyas Azizi 1635 +31*
  13. 75'Monaco:Jordan Teze 2190 −8* for Vanderson 2246 −13*
  14. 75'Monaco:Ansu Fati 2095 −8* for Matthis Abline 1929 −8*
  15. 77'Toulouse:Ismaïl Diallo 1131 0* for Rafik Messali 1840 +7*
  16. 84'Toulouse:Santiago Hidalgo 1862 −7* for Casper Tengstedt 1935 +24*
  17. 84'Toulouse:Aron Dønnum 2020 −8* for Alexis Vossah 1760 +11*
  18. 90+3'Toulouse:Sion Oppong 1499 +38*

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations4-2-3-1
GL. Hrádecký2258−7
DVanderson2246−13*
DSadibou Sané2021−8*
DE. Dier2244−18*
DFlávio Nazinho2144−8*
ML. Camara2296−17*
MD. Zakaria2266−11*
ME. Diop1843−8*
MA. Golovin2226−12*
MM. Detourbet1777−8*
FM. Abline1929−8*
CFilipe Luís2363−17*
GG. Restes2059+7
DR. Messali1840+7*
DS. Koumbassa1700+16*
DM. McKenzie2052−1*
DC. Tapé1561+23*
MC. Cásseres20340*
MA. Vossah1760+11*
MC. Tengstedt1935+24*
MT. Jørgensen1821+10*
MY. Azizi1635+31*
FJ. Russell-Rowe1992−3*
CJens Berthel Askou1852+23*
Before kick-off: 69% · 19% · 12%(Monaco · draw · Toulouse)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 2–0 (11%); the result 2–2 had 4%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Monaco €9.9M, Toulouse €4.6M.
  • Monaco were without 1 expected starter: Paris Josua Brunner (2051).
  • Monaco were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Monaco

1st in Ligue 1 · 13 pts from 5

  • 18 SepWLens 2130
  • 12 SepDStrasbourg 2135
  • 4 SepWParis Saint Germain 2109
  • 30 AugWMarseille 2067
  • 27 AugWGornik Zabrze 2042

Toulouse

14th in Ligue 1 · 5 pts from 5

  • 19 SepWLe Havre 1822
  • 12 SepDLorient 1788
  • 3 SepLLille 1845
  • 29 AugDStade Brestois 29 1786
  • 22 AugLLyon 1785

Season outlook

From the Ligue 1 simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Monaco13 /564.54%81%0%2nd
Toulouse5 /533.80%0%37%16th
Monaco
Toulouse

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Ligue 1

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

L. Camara
L. Camara

Monaco · +2.3 (Good) · Elo 2313

T. Jørgensen
T. Jørgensen

Toulouse · +5.4 (Elite) · Elo 1812

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Filipe Luís Kasmirski

Coach DNA: possession-based · creative

Jens Berthel Askou

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Monaco: balanced profile (how Filipe Luís Kasmirski plays) · Toulouse: balanced profile (how Jens Berthel Askou plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.