Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 8
Monaco vs Lille
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Stade Louis II, Monaco
Monaco host Lille on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Ligue 1); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Monaco 46%, draw 28%, Lille 26%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Monaco €10.0M, Lille €13.2M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Monaco goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 2–08%
- 0–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.8 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.7 pts
Team Elo: Monaco 2132 · Lille 2069
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Monaco · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2274
Lille · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Elite) · Elo 2126
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Monaco
5th in Ligue 1 · 14 pts from 7
- 18 OctLLorient Ligue 12176
- 15 OctWCSKA Sofia UEFA Conference League2103
- 10 OctDToulouse Ligue 12127
- 18 SepWLens Ligue 12130
- 12 SepDStrasbourg Ligue 12135
Lille
4th in Ligue 1 · 14 pts from 7
- 17 OctDStade Brestois 29 Ligue 12027
- 13 OctLArsenal UEFA Champions League2126
- 10 OctWLe Havre Ligue 12044
- 20 SepLNice Ligue 12129
- 13 SepWEstac Troyes Ligue 12157
Season outlook
From the Ligue 1 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco | 14 /7 | 61.3 | 1% | 68% | 0% | 2nd |
| Lille | 14 /7 | 55.4 | <1% | 31% | 0% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Monaco: balanced profile (how Filipe Luís Kasmirski plays) · Lille: possession-based (how Davide Ancelotti plays)