Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 11
Monaco vs Auxerre
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Stade Louis II, Monaco
Monaco host Auxerre on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Ligue 1); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Monaco 61%, draw 23%, Auxerre 16%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Monaco €10.2M, Auxerre €3.5M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Monaco goals first.
- 1–111%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–07%
- 3–17%
- Other scores46%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 1.0 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 4.5 pts
Team Elo: Monaco 2131 · Auxerre 1889
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Monaco · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.1 (Good) · Elo 2217
Auxerre · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1982
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Monaco
7th in Ligue 1 · 16 pts from 10
- 8 NovDLe Mans Ligue 12144
- 5 NovWFC Nordsjaelland UEFA Conference League2102
- 1 NovLParis FC Ligue 12164
- 25 OctDLille Ligue 12201
- 22 OctWSC Freiburg UEFA Conference League2106
Auxerre
14th in Ligue 1 · 10 pts from 10
- 7 NovLParis FC Ligue 11896
- 1 NovLStrasbourg Ligue 11936
- 25 OctDLe Mans Ligue 11938
- 18 OctWLe Havre Ligue 11911
- 11 OctLRennes Ligue 11915
Season outlook
From the Ligue 1 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco | 16 /10 | 57.8 | <1% | 46% | 0% | 4th |
| Auxerre | 10 /10 | 36.8 | 0% | 0% | 15% | 14th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Monaco: balanced profile (how Filipe Luís plays) · Auxerre: balanced profile (how William Still plays)