Eliteserien · Regular Season - 24
Molde 6–1 Start
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Aker Stadion, Molde
MoldeTeam 1670StartTeam 1484- Sander Hestetun Kilen 29', 65', 76'
- Kristian Lonebu 39' (pen)
- Caleb Sery 56'
- Emil Breivik 79'
We gave Molde 55% to win: they did.
- 19'Santino Samuyiwa 1206 −8*Start:Santino Samuyiwa 1206 −8*
- Sander Hestetun Kilen 1596 +55 assist Caleb Sery 1749 +2929'Molde:Sander Hestetun Kilen 1596 +55 assist Caleb Sery 1749 +29
- 38'Erlend Segberg 1612 −14Start:Erlend Segberg 1612 −14
- Kristian Lonebu 1531 +68 (pen.)39'Molde:Kristian Lonebu 1531 +68 (pen.)
- 45'Nikolaos Koutsakos 1551 −3 for Santino Samuyiwa 1206 −8*Start:Nikolaos Koutsakos 1551 −3 for Santino Samuyiwa 1206 −8*
- Fredrik Kristensen Dahl 1558 +2453'Molde:Fredrik Kristensen Dahl 1558 +24
- 54'Nikolaos Koutsakos 1551 −3 (penalty missed)Start:Nikolaos Koutsakos 1551 −3 (penalty missed)
- 54'John Olav Norheim 1434 −3 assist Mikael Ugland 1502 −5Start:John Olav Norheim 1434 −3 assist Mikael Ugland 1502 −5
- Caleb Sery 1749 +29 assist Sander Hestetun Kilen 1596 +5556'Molde:Caleb Sery 1749 +29 assist Sander Hestetun Kilen 1596 +55
- Sander Hestetun Kilen 1596 +55 assist Emil Breivik 1865 +2465'Molde:Sander Hestetun Kilen 1596 +55 assist Emil Breivik 1865 +24
- Niklas Ödegard 1522 +7 for Mathias Lovik 1882 +1667'Molde:Niklas Ödegard 1522 +7 for Mathias Lovik 1882 +16
- Daniel Daga – for Mats Møller Dæhli 1736 +767'Molde:Daniel Daga – for Mats Møller Dæhli 1736 +7
- Birk Risa 1834 +2 for Caleb Sery 1749 +2967'Molde:Birk Risa 1834 +2 for Caleb Sery 1749 +29
- 71'nikola jojic 1414 0 for Mikael Ugland 1502 −5Start:nikola jojic 1414 0 for Mikael Ugland 1502 −5
- Eirik Haugan 1724 +1472'Molde:Eirik Haugan 1724 +14
- Sander Hestetun Kilen 1596 +5576'Molde:Sander Hestetun Kilen 1596 +55
- Oskar Spiten Nysaeter 1683 −5* for Sander Hestetun Kilen 1596 +5577'Molde:Oskar Spiten Nysaeter 1683 −5* for Sander Hestetun Kilen 1596 +55
- Emil Breivik 1865 +24 assist Niklas Ödegard 1522 +779'Molde:Emil Breivik 1865 +24 assist Niklas Ödegard 1522 +7
- Trent Kone-Doherty 1363 +4 for Kristian Lonebu 1531 +6881'Molde:Trent Kone-Doherty 1363 +4 for Kristian Lonebu 1531 +68
- 86'Altin Ujkani 1365 0 for Erlend Dahl Reitan 1589 −11Start:Altin Ujkani 1365 0 for Erlend Dahl Reitan 1589 −11
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 55% · 25% · 20%(Molde · draw · Start)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 6–1 had <1%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Molde €958K, Start €360K.
- Start were without 1 expected starter: F. Manojlović (1816).
- Largest team-Elo gap of Eliteserien matchday 24: 229 points.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Molde
4th in Eliteserien · 37 pts from 22
- 11 OctDLillestrom Eliteserien1685
- 19 SepLAalesund Eliteserien1669
- 13 SepWHam-Kam Eliteserien1665
- 6 SepWKFUM Oslo Eliteserien1701
- 30 AugWValerenga Eliteserien1731
Start
16th in Eliteserien · 16 pts from 22
- 11 OctLHam-Kam Eliteserien1491
- 20 SepLSandefjord Eliteserien1518
- 13 SepWBrann Eliteserien1454
- 4 SepLAalesund Eliteserien1470
- 30 AugWKFUM Oslo Eliteserien1380
Season outlook
From the Eliteserien simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molde | 37 /22 | 48.0 | 0% | 50% | 0% | 5th |
| Start | 16 /22 | 24.3 | 0% | 0% | 96% | 16th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Molde · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Elite) · Elo 1728
Start · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 1626
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Molde: possession-based (how Sindre Tjelmeland plays) · Start: balanced profile (how Azar Karadas plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.