Eliteserien · Regular Season - 12
Molde vs Fredrikstad
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 18:15 UTC · Aker Stadion, Molde
Molde host Fredrikstad on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Eliteserien); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Molde 53%, draw 26%, Fredrikstad 21%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Molde €1.0M, Fredrikstad €534K.
- Style contrast in possession (Eliteserien): Molde rank #3 of 19, Fredrikstad #17.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Molde goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–110%
- 1–010%
- 2–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–16%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Molde 1735 · Fredrikstad 1566
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Molde · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Average) · Elo 1767
Fredrikstad · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.3 (Good) · Elo 1541
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Molde
3rd in Eliteserien · 40 pts from 23
- 18 OctWStart Eliteserien1681
- 11 OctDLillestrom Eliteserien1685
- 19 SepLAalesund Eliteserien1669
- 13 SepWHam-Kam Eliteserien1665
- 6 SepWKFUM Oslo Eliteserien1701
Fredrikstad
8th in Eliteserien · 29 pts from 23
- 17 OctLViking Eliteserien1554
- 11 OctDTromso Eliteserien1574
- 20 SepDValerenga Eliteserien1594
- 13 SepDSarpsborg 08 FF Eliteserien1594
- 4 SepLBodo/Glimt Eliteserien1604
Season outlook
From the Eliteserien simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molde | 40 /23 | 49.4 | 0% | 61% | 0% | 4th |
| Fredrikstad | 29 /23 | 37.2 | 0% | <1% | 2% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Molde: possession-based (how Sindre Tjelmeland plays) · Fredrikstad: direct (how Casper Rojkjaer plays)