Serie B · Regular Season - 10
Modena vs Mantova
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena
Modena host Mantova on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (Serie B); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Modena 43%, draw 28%, Mantova 28%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Modena €1.1M, Mantova €929K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Modena goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Modena 1756 · Mantova 1749
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Modena · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1797
Mantova · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1881
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Modena
4th in Serie B · 13 pts from 7
- 17 OctLCarrarese Italy Serie B1826
- 11 OctWHellas Verona Italy Serie B1811
- 20 SepWEmpoli Italy Serie B1794
- 12 SepDSudtirol Italy Serie B1778
- 6 SepLAvellino Italy Serie B1789
Mantova
2nd in Serie B · 14 pts from 7
- 17 OctLPalermo Italy Serie B1801
- 11 OctWCatanzaro Italy Serie B1757
- 20 SepDPisa Italy Serie B1763
- 13 SepWSampdoria Italy Serie B1731
- 6 SepDCesena Italy Serie B1694
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena | 13 /7 | 59.5 | 1% | 43% | <1% | 4th |
| Mantova | 14 /7 | 60.3 | 2% | 49% | <1% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Modena: balanced profile (how Daniele Galloppa plays) · Mantova: possession-based (how Francesco Modesto plays)