Serie B · Regular Season - 6
Modena 3–2 Hellas Verona
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UTC · Alberto Braglia, Modena
ModenaTeam 1760Hellas VeronaTeam 1751- Giuseppe Caso 13'
- Daniele Montevago 85'
- Andrea Belotti 90+5'
- Daniel Mosquera 24', 28'
We gave Modena 44% to win: they did.
- Giuseppe Caso 1871 +28* assist Gastón Brugman 1804 +31*13'Modena:Giuseppe Caso 1871 +28* assist Gastón Brugman 1804 +31*
- Alessandro Bianco 1860 0*16'Modena:Alessandro Bianco 1860 0*
- 24'Daniel Mosquera 1842 −12*Hellas Verona:Daniel Mosquera 1842 −12*
- 28'Daniel Mosquera 1842 −12*Hellas Verona:Daniel Mosquera 1842 −12*
- 45+2'andrea le borgne 1455 −8*Hellas Verona:andrea le borgne 1455 −8*
- Francesco Folino 1658 +2* for Alessandro Bianco 1860 0*53'Modena:Francesco Folino 1658 +2* for Alessandro Bianco 1860 0*
- Andrea Belotti 1886 +1* for Giacomo Olzer 1768 +3*53'Modena:Andrea Belotti 1886 +1* for Giacomo Olzer 1768 +3*
- 54'Andrias Edmundsson 1877 −3Hellas Verona:Andrias Edmundsson 1877 −3
- 68'Antoine Bernede 1888 −9* for Nunzio Lella 1645 −8*Hellas Verona:Antoine Bernede 1888 −9* for Nunzio Lella 1645 −8*
- 68'Domagoj Bradaric 1890 −8* for Davide De Battisti 1640 −8*Hellas Verona:Domagoj Bradaric 1890 −8* for Davide De Battisti 1640 −8*
- 68'Kacper Sezonienko 1689 −8* for Dailon Livramento 1778 −8*Hellas Verona:Kacper Sezonienko 1689 −8* for Dailon Livramento 1778 −8*
- 74'Nicolo Calabrese 1800 −8* for Domagoj Bradaric 1890 −8*Hellas Verona:Nicolo Calabrese 1800 −8* for Domagoj Bradaric 1890 −8*
- 77'Andrias Edmundsson 1877 −3Hellas Verona:Andrias Edmundsson 1877 −3
- 79'Tobias Slotsager 1623 −8* for Daniel Mosquera 1842 −12*Hellas Verona:Tobias Slotsager 1623 −8* for Daniel Mosquera 1842 −12*
- Daniele Montevago 1447 +2* for Paulo Azzi 1955 −4*81'Modena:Daniele Montevago 1447 +2* for Paulo Azzi 1955 −4*
- Daniele Montevago 1447 +2* assist Giuseppe Caso 1871 +28*85'Modena:Daniele Montevago 1447 +2* assist Giuseppe Caso 1871 +28*
- Wisdom Acquah 1734 −7* for Gastón Brugman 1804 +31*89'Modena:Wisdom Acquah 1734 −7* for Gastón Brugman 1804 +31*
- Andrea Belotti 1886 +1*90+5'Modena:Andrea Belotti 1886 +1*
- Andrea Belotti 1886 +1*90+7'Modena:Andrea Belotti 1886 +1*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 44% · 28% · 28%(Modena · draw · Hellas Verona)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 3–2 had 3%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Modena €1.2M, Hellas Verona €1.5M.
- Home advantage made Modena the favourite: it added 8 points to their win chance.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Modena
6th in Serie B · 10 pts from 5
- 20 SepWEmpoli Italy Serie B1794
- 12 SepDSudtirol Italy Serie B1778
- 6 SepLAvellino Italy Serie B1789
- 28 AugWCremonese Italy Serie B1721
- 22 AugWBenevento Italy Serie B1705
Hellas Verona
9th in Serie B · 7 pts from 5
- 20 SepWVicenza Virtus Italy Serie B1800
- 11 SepLBenevento Italy Serie B1822
- 6 SepWArezzo Italy Serie B1836
- 3 SepWCagliari Italy Coppa Italia1725
- 29 AugDPadova Italy Serie B1787
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena | 10 /5 | 59.3 | 2% | 36% | <1% | 4th |
| Hellas Verona | 7 /5 | 60.4 | 3% | 44% | <1% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Modena · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Elite) · Elo 1715
Hellas Verona · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Good) · Elo 1462
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Modena: balanced profile (how Daniele Galloppa plays) · Hellas Verona: direct · high-pressing (how Marco Baroni plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.