Serie A · Regular Season - 32
Mirassol vs Sao Paulo
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 19:30 UTC · José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol
Mirassol host Sao Paulo on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Mirassol 41%, draw 29%, Sao Paulo 30%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Mirassol €1.1M, Sao Paulo €2.9M.
- Home advantage makes Mirassol the favourite here: it adds 12 points to their win chance; Série A has one of the three largest home advantages of our 20 competitions.
- All 11 of Mirassol's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Mirassol goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–07%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Mirassol 1820 · Sao Paulo 1903
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Mirassol · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Good) · Elo 1929
Sao Paulo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Average) · Elo 1991
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Mirassol
14th in Série A · 36 pts from 31
- 16 OctWInternacional Brazil Serie A1825
- 11 OctLBahia Brazil Serie A1813
- 7 OctDRB Bragantino Brazil Serie A1796
- 19 SepWBotafogo Brazil Serie A1753
- 13 SepDVitoria Brazil Serie A1738
Sao Paulo
9th in Série A · 42 pts from 31
- 18 OctWVasco Da Gama Brazil Serie A1905
- 11 OctWVitoria Brazil Serie A1861
- 8 OctLCruzeiro Brazil Serie A1903
- 2 OctLSantos Brazil Serie A1880
- 20 SepWInternacional Brazil Serie A1863
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirassol | 36 /31 | 44.4 | 0% | 0% | 7% | 15th |
| Sao Paulo | 42 /31 | 51.8 | 0% | <1% | 0% | 9th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Mirassol: balanced profile (how Rafael Silva Guanaes plays) · Sao Paulo: possession-based (how Dorival Silvestre Júnior plays)