Serie A · Regular Season - 35
Mirassol vs Atletico-MG
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 21:30 UTC · José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol
Mirassol host Atletico-MG on Sat 14 Nov 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Mirassol 35%, draw 29%, Atletico-MG 36%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Mirassol €1.2M, Atletico-MG €4.6M.
- All 11 of Mirassol's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Mirassol goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 0–19%
- 1–08%
- 1–28%
- 2–18%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Mirassol 1833 · Atletico-MG 1996
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Mirassol · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Good) · Elo 1836
Atletico-MG · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Good) · Elo 2058
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Mirassol
16th in Série A · 37 pts from 32
- 24 OctDSao Paulo Brazil Serie A1862
- 16 OctWInternacional Brazil Serie A1825
- 11 OctLBahia Brazil Serie A1813
- 7 OctDRB Bragantino Brazil Serie A1796
- 19 SepWBotafogo Brazil Serie A1753
Atletico-MG
7th in Série A · 50 pts from 33
- 29 OctLCruzeiro Brazil Serie A2018
- 26 OctLFlamengo Brazil Serie A2048
- 21 OctLAtletico Torque Copa Sudamericana2059
- 17 OctWCoritiba Brazil Serie A1946
- 14 OctWAtletico Torque Copa Sudamericana2046
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirassol | 37 /32 | 43.8 | 0% | 0% | 11% | 15th |
| Atletico-MG | 50 /33 | 57.7 | 0% | 9% | 0% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Mirassol: balanced profile (how Rafael Guanaes plays) · Atletico-MG: possession-based (how E. Domínguez plays)