Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 34
Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes
Sun 8 Nov 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Allianz Field, Sao Paulo
Minnesota United FC host San Jose Earthquakes on Sun 8 Nov 2026 (Major League Soccer); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Minnesota United FC 39%, draw 29%, San Jose Earthquakes 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Minnesota United FC €2.0M, San Jose Earthquakes €2.6M.
- Home advantage makes Minnesota United FC the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
- San Jose Earthquakes are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Minnesota United FC goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Minnesota United FC 1879 · San Jose Earthquakes 1954
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Minnesota United FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 1920
San Jose Earthquakes · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 2103
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Minnesota United FC
13th in MLS · 34 pts from 30
- 17 OctWSt. Louis City MLS1867
- 15 OctDColorado Rapids MLS1828
- 11 OctDHouston Dynamo MLS1859
- 27 SepLSeattle Sounders MLS1860
- 20 SepLLos Angeles Galaxy MLS1916
San Jose Earthquakes
4th in MLS · 48 pts from 30
- 18 OctDNashville SC MLS2010
- 15 OctDReal Salt Lake MLS1904
- 11 OctDColorado Rapids MLS1943
- 27 SepWPortland Timbers MLS1924
- 19 SepDLos Angeles FC MLS2029
Season outlook
From the Major League Soccer simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United FC | 34 /30 | 39.2 | 0% | 0% | 4% | 25th |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 48 /30 | 54.1 | 0% | 6% | 0% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 30th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Minnesota United FC: direct (how Cameron Knowles plays) · San Jose Earthquakes: balanced profile (how Bruce Arena plays)