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League One · Regular Season - 11

Milton Keynes Dons 2–1 Luton

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 11:30 UTC · Stadium MK, Milton Keynes

Milton Keynes Dons crestMilton Keynes DonsTeam 1783
2–1
Full time
HT 1–0
Luton crestLutonTeam 1836

Match story

Milton Keynes Dons · draw · Luton

Before kick-off: 37% · 31% · 32%

Live chances: Milton Keynes Dons 99%, draw 1%, Luton 0% at 90+6'2' · 0–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 37%, draw 31%, Luton 32%3' · 0–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 37%, draw 31%, Luton 32%4' · 0–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 37%, draw 31%, Luton 32%5' · 0–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 37%, draw 31%, Luton 32%6' · 0–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 37%, draw 32%, Luton 32%7' · 0–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 37%, draw 32%, Luton 32%8' · 0–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 37%, draw 32%, Luton 32%9' · 0–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 36%, draw 32%, Luton 32%10' · 0–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 36%, draw 32%, Luton 32%11' · 0–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 36%, draw 32%, Luton 32%12' · 0–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 36%, draw 32%, Luton 31%13' · 0–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 36%, draw 32%, Luton 31%14' · 0–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 36%, draw 33%, Luton 31%15' · 0–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 36%, draw 33%, Luton 31%16' · 0–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 36%, draw 33%, Luton 31%17' · 0–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 36%, draw 33%, Luton 31%18' · 0–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 36%, draw 33%, Luton 31%19' · 0–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 36%, draw 33%, Luton 31%20' · 0–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 35%, draw 33%, Luton 31%21' · 0–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 35%, draw 34%, Luton 31%22' · 0–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 35%, draw 34%, Luton 31%23' · 0–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 35%, draw 34%, Luton 31%24' · 0–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 35%, draw 34%, Luton 31%25' · 0–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 35%, draw 34%, Luton 31%26' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 66%, draw 23%, Luton 11%27' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 66%, draw 23%, Luton 11%28' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 66%, draw 23%, Luton 11%29' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 66%, draw 23%, Luton 11%30' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 66%, draw 23%, Luton 11%31' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 66%, draw 23%, Luton 11%32' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 66%, draw 23%, Luton 11%33' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 66%, draw 23%, Luton 10%34' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 67%, draw 23%, Luton 10%35' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 67%, draw 23%, Luton 10%36' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 67%, draw 23%, Luton 10%37' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 67%, draw 23%, Luton 10%38' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 67%, draw 23%, Luton 10%39' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 67%, draw 23%, Luton 10%40' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 67%, draw 23%, Luton 9%41' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 68%, draw 23%, Luton 9%42' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 68%, draw 23%, Luton 9%43' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 68%, draw 23%, Luton 9%44' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 68%, draw 23%, Luton 9%45' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 68%, draw 23%, Luton 9%45+1' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 68%, draw 23%, Luton 9%HT · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 69%, draw 23%, Luton 8%46' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 69%, draw 23%, Luton 8%47' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 69%, draw 23%, Luton 8%48' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 69%, draw 23%, Luton 8%49' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 70%, draw 23%, Luton 8%50' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 70%, draw 23%, Luton 7%51' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 70%, draw 23%, Luton 7%52' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 70%, draw 22%, Luton 7%53' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 71%, draw 22%, Luton 7%54' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 71%, draw 22%, Luton 7%55' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 71%, draw 22%, Luton 7%56' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 72%, draw 22%, Luton 6%57' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 72%, draw 22%, Luton 6%58' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 72%, draw 22%, Luton 6%59' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 73%, draw 22%, Luton 6%60' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 73%, draw 21%, Luton 5%61' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 73%, draw 21%, Luton 5%62' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 74%, draw 21%, Luton 5%63' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 74%, draw 21%, Luton 5%64' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 75%, draw 21%, Luton 5%65' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 75%, draw 20%, Luton 5%66' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 75%, draw 20%, Luton 4%67' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 76%, draw 20%, Luton 4%68' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 76%, draw 20%, Luton 4%69' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 77%, draw 19%, Luton 4%70' · 1–0 · Milton Keynes Dons 77%, draw 19%, Luton 4%71' · 1–1 · Milton Keynes Dons 23%, draw 57%, Luton 21%72' · 1–1 · Milton Keynes Dons 22%, draw 57%, Luton 20%73' · 1–1 · Milton Keynes Dons 22%, draw 58%, Luton 20%74' · 1–1 · Milton Keynes Dons 21%, draw 59%, Luton 19%75' · 1–1 · Milton Keynes Dons 21%, draw 60%, Luton 19%76' · 1–1 · Milton Keynes Dons 20%, draw 62%, Luton 18%77' · 1–1 · Milton Keynes Dons 19%, draw 63%, Luton 18%78' · 1–1 · Milton Keynes Dons 19%, draw 64%, Luton 17%79' · 2–1 · Milton Keynes Dons 82%, draw 16%, Luton 2%80' · 2–1 · Milton Keynes Dons 83%, draw 15%, Luton 2%81' · 2–1 · Milton Keynes Dons 84%, draw 15%, Luton 2%82' · 2–1 · Milton Keynes Dons 84%, draw 14%, Luton 1%83' · 2–1 · Milton Keynes Dons 85%, draw 14%, Luton 1%84' · 2–1 · Milton Keynes Dons 86%, draw 13%, Luton 1%85' · 2–1 · Milton Keynes Dons 87%, draw 12%, Luton 1%86' · 2–1 · Milton Keynes Dons 88%, draw 12%, Luton 1%87' · 2–1 · Milton Keynes Dons 88%, draw 11%, Luton 1%88' · 2–1 · Milton Keynes Dons 89%, draw 10%, Luton 1%89' · 2–1 · Milton Keynes Dons 90%, draw 9%, Luton 1%90' · 2–1 · Milton Keynes Dons 91%, draw 8%, Luton 0%90+1' · 2–1 · Milton Keynes Dons 93%, draw 7%, Luton 0%90+2' · 2–1 · Milton Keynes Dons 94%, draw 6%, Luton 0%90+3' · 2–1 · Milton Keynes Dons 95%, draw 5%, Luton 0%90+4' · 2–1 · Milton Keynes Dons 96%, draw 4%, Luton 0%90+5' · 2–1 · Milton Keynes Dons 98%, draw 2%, Luton 0%90+6' · 2–1 · Milton Keynes Dons 99%, draw 1%, Luton 0%

Last reading, 90+6': 99% · 1% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Milton Keynes Dons 37% to win: they did.

  1. 25'Milton Keynes Dons:Alex Gilbey 1825 +44
  2. 57'Milton Keynes Dons:Ryan Wintle 1898 +11
  3. 59'Luton:Callum Marshall 1798 0 for Nahki Wells 1797 −9
  4. 59'Milton Keynes Dons:Ben Wiles 1839 +5 for ibrahim fullah 1681 +16
  5. 64'Milton Keynes Dons:Alex Gilbey 1825 +44
  6. 70'Luton:Jordan Clark 1926 −29 assist Tudor Mendel-Idowu 1156 0
  7. 75'Luton:E. Lawrence 1670 0 for Jamie Donley 1972 −23
  8. 79'Milton Keynes Dons:Aaron Collins 1836 +44 (pen.)
  9. 83'Luton:Devante Cole 1707 −3 for Kasey Palmer 1929 −10
  10. 84'Luton:Isaiah Jones 1925 −1 for Mads Juel Andersen 1927 −9
  11. 84'Luton:Jake Richards 1865 0 for Tudor Mendel-Idowu 1156 0
  12. 89'Milton Keynes Dons:Cohen Bramall 1731 −2 for Samuel Silvera 1958 +9
  13. 90+4'Milton Keynes Dons:Gethin Jones 1785 −2 for Aaron Collins 1836 +44

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

3-1-4-2Formations4-1-4-1
GW. Dennis1842+45
DM. Ekpiteta1822+14
DJ. Sanders1871+13
DC. Goode1786+16
MR. Wintle1898+11
MI. Fullah1681+16
MElijah Xavier Campbell1749+21
MA. Gilbey1825+44
MS. Silvera1958+9
FS. Nombe1731+22
FA. Collins1836+44
CP. Warne1857+28
GJ. Shea1660−3
DH. Odoffin1930−9
DM. Andersen1927−9
DG. Johnston1938−10
DK. Naismith1856−9
ML. Walsh1888−7
MT. Mendel-Idowu11560
MJ. Clark1926−29
MK. Palmer1929−10
MJ. Donley1972−23
FN. Wells1797−9
CJ. Wilshere17310
Before kick-off: 37% · 31% · 32%(Milton Keynes Dons · draw · Luton)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (15%); the result 2–1 had 8%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Milton Keynes Dons €548K, Luton €590K.
  • Home advantage made Milton Keynes Dons the favourite: it added 7 points to their win chance.
  • Style contrast in pressing & duels (League One): Milton Keynes Dons ranked #21 of 24, Luton #3.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Milton Keynes Dons

23rd in League One · 6 pts from 8

  • 10 OctLReading 1803
  • 6 OctWBrentford U21 1742
  • 22 SepWCrawley Town 1780
  • 17 SepDAFC Wimbledon 1759
  • 12 SepDPeterborough 1769

Luton

14th in League One · 11 pts from 8

  • 10 OctWWycombe 1783
  • 3 OctDColchester 1729
  • 22 SepWIpswich Town U21 1767
  • 19 SepLBradford 1807
  • 10 SepLStevenage 1867

Season outlook

From the League One simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Milton Keynes Dons6 /856.2<1%2%15%16th
Luton11 /869.27%34%<1%3rd
Milton Keynes Dons
Luton

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: League One

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

W. Dennis
W. Dennis

Milton Keynes Dons · +1.4 (Good) · Elo 1797

L. Walsh
L. Walsh

Luton · +4.9 (Elite) · Elo 1894

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Paul Warne

Coach DNA: direct

Jack Andrew Garry Wilshere

Coach DNA: –

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Milton Keynes Dons: possession-based (how Paul Warne plays) · Luton: dribble-heavy (how Jack Andrew Garry Wilshere plays)