League One · Regular Season - 15
Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Stadium MK, Milton Keynes
Milton Keynes Dons host Burton Albion on Sat 14 Nov 2026 (League One); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Milton Keynes Dons 50%, draw 27%, Burton Albion 23%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Milton Keynes Dons €582K, Burton Albion €464K.
- Style contrast in possession (League One): Milton Keynes Dons rank #2 of 24, Burton Albion #22.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Milton Keynes Dons goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–26%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Milton Keynes Dons 1844 · Burton Albion 1757
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Milton Keynes Dons · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1903
Burton Albion · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1801
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Milton Keynes Dons
14th in League One · 15 pts from 12
- 27 OctWBromley England League One1834
- 24 OctWStevenage England League One1807
- 20 OctLBlackpool England League One1820
- 17 OctWLuton England League One1797
- 10 OctLReading England League One1803
Burton Albion
12th in League One · 17 pts from 13
- 24 OctWLeyton Orient England League One1745
- 20 OctDBradford England League One1738
- 17 OctDPeterborough England League One1799
- 10 OctLDoncaster England League One1816
- 6 OctDGrimsby England EFL Trophy1445
Season outlook
From the League One simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons | 15 /12 | 63.6 | 1% | 7% | 1% | 13th |
| Burton Albion | 17 /13 | 58.4 | <1% | 2% | 5% | 15th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Milton Keynes Dons: possession-based (how Paul Warne plays) · Burton Albion: direct (how G. Bowyer plays)