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Championship · Regular Season - 11

Millwall 2–2 Lincoln

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 11:30 UTC · The Den, London

Millwall crestMillwallTeam 1988
2–2
Full time
HT 0–2
Lincoln crestLincolnTeam 1896

Match story

Millwall · draw · Lincoln

Before kick-off: 49% · 27% · 24%

Live chances: Millwall 1%, draw 98%, Lincoln 0% at 90+6'2' · 0–1 · Millwall 32%, draw 27%, Lincoln 41%3' · 0–1 · Millwall 32%, draw 27%, Lincoln 41%4' · 0–1 · Millwall 32%, draw 27%, Lincoln 41%5' · 0–1 · Millwall 32%, draw 27%, Lincoln 41%6' · 0–1 · Millwall 32%, draw 27%, Lincoln 41%7' · 0–1 · Millwall 31%, draw 27%, Lincoln 42%8' · 0–1 · Millwall 31%, draw 27%, Lincoln 42%9' · 0–1 · Millwall 31%, draw 27%, Lincoln 42%10' · 0–1 · Millwall 31%, draw 27%, Lincoln 42%11' · 0–1 · Millwall 30%, draw 27%, Lincoln 42%12' · 0–1 · Millwall 30%, draw 27%, Lincoln 43%13' · 0–1 · Millwall 30%, draw 27%, Lincoln 43%14' · 0–1 · Millwall 30%, draw 27%, Lincoln 43%15' · 0–1 · Millwall 29%, draw 28%, Lincoln 43%16' · 0–1 · Millwall 29%, draw 28%, Lincoln 43%17' · 0–1 · Millwall 29%, draw 28%, Lincoln 44%18' · 0–1 · Millwall 28%, draw 28%, Lincoln 44%19' · 0–1 · Millwall 28%, draw 28%, Lincoln 44%20' · 0–1 · Millwall 28%, draw 28%, Lincoln 44%21' · 0–1 · Millwall 28%, draw 28%, Lincoln 44%22' · 0–1 · Millwall 27%, draw 28%, Lincoln 45%23' · 0–1 · Millwall 27%, draw 28%, Lincoln 45%24' · 0–1 · Millwall 27%, draw 28%, Lincoln 45%25' · 0–1 · Millwall 26%, draw 28%, Lincoln 45%26' · 0–1 · Millwall 26%, draw 28%, Lincoln 46%27' · 0–1 · Millwall 26%, draw 28%, Lincoln 46%28' · 0–1 · Millwall 26%, draw 28%, Lincoln 46%29' · 0–1 · Millwall 25%, draw 28%, Lincoln 46%30' · 0–1 · Millwall 25%, draw 28%, Lincoln 47%32' · 0–1 · Millwall 24%, draw 28%, Lincoln 47%33' · 0–1 · Millwall 24%, draw 29%, Lincoln 47%34' · 0–2 · Millwall 6%, draw 14%, Lincoln 79%35' · 0–2 · Millwall 6%, draw 14%, Lincoln 80%36' · 0–2 · Millwall 6%, draw 14%, Lincoln 80%37' · 0–2 · Millwall 6%, draw 14%, Lincoln 80%38' · 0–2 · Millwall 6%, draw 14%, Lincoln 81%39' · 0–2 · Millwall 6%, draw 14%, Lincoln 81%40' · 0–2 · Millwall 5%, draw 13%, Lincoln 81%41' · 0–2 · Millwall 5%, draw 13%, Lincoln 82%42' · 0–2 · Millwall 5%, draw 13%, Lincoln 82%43' · 0–2 · Millwall 5%, draw 13%, Lincoln 82%44' · 0–2 · Millwall 5%, draw 13%, Lincoln 82%45' · 0–2 · Millwall 5%, draw 13%, Lincoln 83%45+1' · 0–2 · Millwall 4%, draw 12%, Lincoln 83%45+2' · 0–2 · Millwall 4%, draw 12%, Lincoln 84%45+3' · 0–2 · Millwall 4%, draw 12%, Lincoln 84%45+4' · 0–2 · Millwall 4%, draw 12%, Lincoln 84%HT · 0–2 · Millwall 4%, draw 12%, Lincoln 84%47' · 0–2 · Millwall 4%, draw 12%, Lincoln 84%48' · 0–2 · Millwall 4%, draw 11%, Lincoln 85%49' · 0–2 · Millwall 4%, draw 11%, Lincoln 85%50' · 0–2 · Millwall 3%, draw 11%, Lincoln 86%51' · 0–2 · Millwall 3%, draw 11%, Lincoln 86%52' · 0–2 · Millwall 3%, draw 10%, Lincoln 86%53' · 0–2 · Millwall 3%, draw 10%, Lincoln 87%54' · 0–2 · Millwall 3%, draw 10%, Lincoln 87%55' · 0–2 · Millwall 3%, draw 10%, Lincoln 88%56' · 0–2 · Millwall 2%, draw 9%, Lincoln 88%57' · 0–2 · Millwall 2%, draw 9%, Lincoln 89%58' · 0–2 · Millwall 2%, draw 9%, Lincoln 89%59' · 0–2 · Millwall 2%, draw 9%, Lincoln 89%60' · 0–2 · Millwall 2%, draw 8%, Lincoln 90%61' · 0–2 · Millwall 2%, draw 8%, Lincoln 90%62' · 0–2 · Millwall 2%, draw 8%, Lincoln 91%63' · 0–2 · Millwall 2%, draw 7%, Lincoln 91%64' · 1–2 · Millwall 11%, draw 28%, Lincoln 62%65' · 1–2 · Millwall 10%, draw 27%, Lincoln 62%66' · 1–2 · Millwall 10%, draw 27%, Lincoln 63%67' · 1–2 · Millwall 9%, draw 27%, Lincoln 64%68' · 1–2 · Millwall 9%, draw 27%, Lincoln 64%69' · 1–2 · Millwall 8%, draw 26%, Lincoln 65%70' · 1–2 · Millwall 8%, draw 26%, Lincoln 66%71' · 1–2 · Millwall 8%, draw 26%, Lincoln 67%72' · 1–2 · Millwall 7%, draw 25%, Lincoln 67%73' · 1–2 · Millwall 7%, draw 25%, Lincoln 68%74' · 1–2 · Millwall 6%, draw 25%, Lincoln 69%75' · 1–2 · Millwall 6%, draw 24%, Lincoln 70%76' · 1–2 · Millwall 6%, draw 24%, Lincoln 71%77' · 1–2 · Millwall 5%, draw 23%, Lincoln 72%78' · 1–2 · Millwall 5%, draw 23%, Lincoln 73%79' · 1–2 · Millwall 4%, draw 22%, Lincoln 74%80' · 1–2 · Millwall 4%, draw 21%, Lincoln 75%81' · 1–2 · Millwall 4%, draw 21%, Lincoln 76%82' · 1–2 · Millwall 3%, draw 20%, Lincoln 77%83' · 2–2 · Millwall 19%, draw 68%, Lincoln 13%84' · 2–2 · Millwall 18%, draw 70%, Lincoln 12%85' · 2–2 · Millwall 17%, draw 71%, Lincoln 12%86' · 2–2 · Millwall 22%, draw 71%, Lincoln 7%87' · 2–2 · Millwall 20%, draw 73%, Lincoln 7%88' · 2–2 · Millwall 19%, draw 75%, Lincoln 6%89' · 2–2 · Millwall 17%, draw 77%, Lincoln 6%90' · 2–2 · Millwall 15%, draw 80%, Lincoln 5%90+1' · 2–2 · Millwall 13%, draw 82%, Lincoln 5%90+2' · 2–2 · Millwall 11%, draw 85%, Lincoln 4%90+3' · 2–2 · Millwall 9%, draw 88%, Lincoln 3%90+4' · 2–2 · Millwall 6%, draw 91%, Lincoln 2%90+5' · 2–2 · Millwall 4%, draw 95%, Lincoln 1%90+6' · 2–2 · Millwall 1%, draw 98%, Lincoln 0%

Last reading, 90+6': 1% · 98% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Millwall 49% to win: it ended in a draw.

  1. 1'Lincoln:Andrei Coubiș 1821 +6
  2. 33'Lincoln:Robert Nicholas Street 1984 +9 assist Sonny Bradley 1971 −2
  3. 35'Millwall:Tristan Crama 2112 −2
  4. 35'Lincoln:Robert Nicholas Street 1984 +9
  5. 41'Lincoln:F. Draper 1922 +4
  6. 45'Millwall:Max Crocombe 2011 −10* for Filip Marshall 1809 0
  7. 45'Millwall:Luke Cundle 1979 0 for Mark Sykes 1927 −2
  8. 63'Millwall:Kyrell Lisbie 1823 0
  9. 66'Lincoln:Daniel Oyegoke 1658 +2 for Reeco Hackett-Fairchild 1959 −6*
  10. 69'Lincoln:Andrei Coubiș 1821 +6
  11. 72'Millwall:Romain Esse 2010 −8* for Jenson Metcalfe 1962 0
  12. 72'Millwall:Ryan Leonard 1921 −7 for Tristan Crama 2112 −2
  13. 72'Millwall:Kyrell Lisbie 1823 0
  14. 80'Lincoln:Ryley Towler 1988 0 for Adam Reach 1919 −1
  15. 80'Lincoln:Callum Elder 1950 −3 for Dom Jefferies 1886 +4
  16. 80'Millwall:Zakariya Lovelace 1461 −8* for Kyrell Lisbie 1823 0
  17. 82'Millwall:Jake Cooper 2116 −10
  18. 84'Lincoln:Deji Elerewe 1934 +4
  19. 86'Millwall:Zak Sturge 2104 −2
  20. 90+1'Millwall:Ryan Leonard 1921 −7
  21. 90+1'Lincoln:Callum Elder 1950 −3
  22. 90+2'Millwall:Camiel Neghli 2135 −3
  23. 90+3'Lincoln:Mikkel Ladefoged 1526 0 for F. Draper 1922 +4

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations3-4-2-1
GF. Marschall18090
DT. Crama2112−2
DC. Taylor2106−2
DJ. Cooper2116−10
DZak Norton Sturge2104−2
MD. Mazou-Sacko18530
MJenson Metcalfe19620
MM. Sykes1927−2
MC. Neghli2135−3
MK. Lisbie18230
FL. Dykes1919−3
CA. Neil2093−4
GG. Wickens1995+3
DD. Elerewe1934+4
DS. Bradley1971−2
DA. Coubiș1821+6
MD. Jefferies1886+4
MI. Varfolomeev1980+3
MY. Konak1789+7
MA. Reach1919−1
MR. Hackett1959−6*
MR. Street1984+9
FF. Draper1922+4
CTom Shaw1793
Before kick-off: 49% · 27% · 24%(Millwall · draw · Lincoln)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 2–2 had 5%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Millwall €3.6M, Lincoln €931K.
  • Lincoln were without 2 expected starters: T. Hamer (2004) and C. McGrandles (1983).

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Millwall

11th in Championship · 14 pts from 10

  • 13 OctLSwansea 1992
  • 10 OctWPreston 1978
  • 19 SepDWest Ham 1990
  • 15 SepDMiddlesbrough 1998
  • 12 SepLBlackburn 2014

Lincoln

18th in Championship · 11 pts from 10

  • 14 OctLWest Ham 1950
  • 10 OctLSheffield Utd 1980
  • 19 SepLSwansea 1981
  • 15 SepWBristol City 1973
  • 12 SepWPreston 1926

Season outlook

From the Championship simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Millwall14 /1065.21%8%1%8th
Lincoln11 /1057.10%1%11%15th
Millwall
Lincoln

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Championship

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

C. Taylor
C. Taylor

Millwall · +2.7 (Good) · Elo 2109

S. Bradley
S. Bradley

Lincoln · +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1973

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Alexander Francis Neil

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Tom Shaw

Coach DNA: –

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Millwall: direct · high-pressing (how Alexander Francis Neil plays) · Lincoln: direct (how Tom Shaw plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.