Primera A · Clausura - 19
Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar
Thu 12 Nov 2026 · 21:00 UTC
Millonarios host Alianza Valledupar on Thu 12 Nov 2026 (Primera A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Millonarios 62%, draw 22%, Alianza Valledupar 15%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Millonarios €464K, Alianza Valledupar €258K.
- Alianza Valledupar's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.7 over 180 days.
- Millonarios are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Millonarios goals first.
- 1–111%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–07%
- 3–17%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Millonarios 1714 · Alianza Valledupar 1532
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Millonarios · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Elite) · Elo 1645
Alianza Valledupar · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1573
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Millonarios
10th in Primera A · 26 pts from 19
- 21 OctDOnce Caldas Colombia Primera A1683
- 17 OctWJaguares Colombia Primera A1689
- 9 OctDFortaleza FC Colombia Primera A1693
- 30 SepDIndependiente Medellin Colombia Primera A1670
- 25 SepDAtletico Nacional Colombia Primera A1698
Alianza Valledupar
17th in Primera A · 17 pts from 19
- 25 OctWInternacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A1495
- 20 OctWDeportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A1495
- 9 OctDÁguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A1505
- 3 OctLDeportivo Cali Colombia Primera A1524
- 27 SepWJaguares Colombia Primera A1502
Season outlook
From the Primera A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millonarios | 26 /19 | 30.7 | 0% | <1% | 0% | 12th |
| Alianza Valledupar | 17 /19 | 20.8 | 0% | 0% | 47% | 17th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Millonarios: balanced profile (how A. Gamero plays) · Alianza Valledupar: balanced profile (how Flabio Torres plays)