Primera Nacional · Regular Season - 33
Midland 4–0 Atletico DE Rafaela
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 19:30 UTC · Raul Roberto Sabureau Stadium, Buenos Aires
MidlandTeam 1424Atletico DE RafaelaTeam 1419- D. Bulacio 13'
- F. Marin 25'
- L. Recalde 78' (pen)
- M. Abruzzese 90+2'
We gave Midland 43% to win: they did.
- D. Bulacio – assist F. Marin –13'Midland:D. Bulacio – assist F. Marin –
- F. Marin – assist M. Roseti –25'Midland:F. Marin – assist M. Roseti –
- 28'A. Rodriguez –Atletico DE Rafaela:A. Rodriguez –
- 46'M. Moreno – for A. Rodriguez –Atletico DE Rafaela:M. Moreno – for A. Rodriguez –
- 68'M. Pardo – for N. Cainelli –Atletico DE Rafaela:M. Pardo – for N. Cainelli –
- D. Guzman – for J. Perales –70'Midland:D. Guzman – for J. Perales –
- J. Camano – for R. Luna –70'Midland:J. Camano – for R. Luna –
- 70'T. Rojas –Atletico DE Rafaela:T. Rojas –
- 78'J. Capurro – for F. Soloa –Atletico DE Rafaela:J. Capurro – for F. Soloa –
- V. Madalon – for F. Marin –78'Midland:V. Madalon – for F. Marin –
- 78'L. Flores – for T. Rojas –Atletico DE Rafaela:L. Flores – for T. Rojas –
- 78'M. Quiroga – for J. Bonifacio –Atletico DE Rafaela:M. Quiroga – for J. Bonifacio –
- L. Recalde – (pen.)78'Midland:L. Recalde – (pen.)
- R. Cao – for N. Violini –86'Midland:R. Cao – for N. Violini –
- M. Abruzzese – for D. Bulacio –86'Midland:M. Abruzzese – for D. Bulacio –
- M. Abruzzese –90+2'Midland:M. Abruzzese –
Before kick-off (provisional): 43% · 28% · 28%(Midland · draw · Atletico DE Rafaela)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 4–0 had 1%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Midland €124K, Atletico DE Rafaela €100K.
- G. Fernández (Atletico DE Rafaela) had not played for over 90 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Midland
5th in Primera Nacional · 48 pts from 32
- 29 AugWNueva Chicago Argentine Primera Nacional1435
- 12 JulWQuilmes Argentine Primera Nacional1430
- 5 JulDGimnasia Jujuy Argentine Primera Nacional1381
- 6 JunLGimnasia Y Tiro Argentine Primera Nacional1444
- 31 MayWSan Martin Tucuman Argentine Primera Nacional1419
Atletico DE Rafaela
11th in Primera Nacional · 42 pts from 32
- 29 AugWTristan Suarez Argentine Primera Nacional1398
- 11 JulLDeportivo Maipu Argentine Primera Nacional1401
- 4 JulLAlmagro Argentine Primera Nacional1433
- 6 JunWColegiales Argentine Primera Nacional1446
- 31 MayLQuilmes Argentine Primera Nacional1456
Season outlook
From the Primera Nacional simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Midland | 48 /32 | 53.1 | 0% | <1% | 0% | 10th |
| Atletico DE Rafaela | 42 /32 | 47.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 19th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 36th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Atletico DE Rafaela · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1340
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –