NewPlayerElo now rates women's footballExplore →
← All matches

Championship · Regular Season - 11

Middlesbrough 2–2 Cardiff

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 11:30 UTC · Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough crestMiddlesbroughTeam 2114
2–2
Full time
HT 0–2
Cardiff crestCardiffTeam 1952

Match story

Middlesbrough · draw · Cardiff

Before kick-off: 56% · 24% · 20%

Live chances: Middlesbrough 4%, draw 94%, Cardiff 1% at 90+5'2' · 0–0 · Middlesbrough 56%, draw 24%, Cardiff 20%3' · 0–0 · Middlesbrough 56%, draw 24%, Cardiff 20%4' · 0–0 · Middlesbrough 56%, draw 24%, Cardiff 20%5' · 0–0 · Middlesbrough 55%, draw 24%, Cardiff 20%6' · 0–0 · Middlesbrough 55%, draw 25%, Cardiff 20%7' · 0–0 · Middlesbrough 55%, draw 25%, Cardiff 20%8' · 0–0 · Middlesbrough 55%, draw 25%, Cardiff 20%9' · 0–0 · Middlesbrough 55%, draw 25%, Cardiff 20%10' · 0–0 · Middlesbrough 55%, draw 25%, Cardiff 20%11' · 0–0 · Middlesbrough 54%, draw 25%, Cardiff 20%12' · 0–0 · Middlesbrough 54%, draw 25%, Cardiff 20%13' · 0–0 · Middlesbrough 54%, draw 26%, Cardiff 21%14' · 0–0 · Middlesbrough 54%, draw 26%, Cardiff 21%15' · 0–0 · Middlesbrough 54%, draw 26%, Cardiff 21%16' · 0–0 · Middlesbrough 53%, draw 26%, Cardiff 21%17' · 0–0 · Middlesbrough 53%, draw 26%, Cardiff 21%18' · 0–0 · Middlesbrough 53%, draw 26%, Cardiff 21%19' · 0–0 · Middlesbrough 53%, draw 26%, Cardiff 21%20' · 0–0 · Middlesbrough 53%, draw 27%, Cardiff 21%21' · 0–0 · Middlesbrough 52%, draw 27%, Cardiff 21%22' · 0–0 · Middlesbrough 52%, draw 27%, Cardiff 21%23' · 0–1 · Middlesbrough 34%, draw 27%, Cardiff 39%24' · 0–1 · Middlesbrough 33%, draw 27%, Cardiff 40%25' · 0–1 · Middlesbrough 33%, draw 27%, Cardiff 40%26' · 0–1 · Middlesbrough 33%, draw 27%, Cardiff 40%27' · 0–1 · Middlesbrough 32%, draw 27%, Cardiff 40%28' · 0–1 · Middlesbrough 32%, draw 27%, Cardiff 41%29' · 0–1 · Middlesbrough 32%, draw 28%, Cardiff 41%30' · 0–1 · Middlesbrough 31%, draw 28%, Cardiff 41%31' · 0–1 · Middlesbrough 31%, draw 28%, Cardiff 41%32' · 0–1 · Middlesbrough 30%, draw 28%, Cardiff 42%33' · 0–1 · Middlesbrough 30%, draw 28%, Cardiff 42%34' · 0–1 · Middlesbrough 30%, draw 28%, Cardiff 42%35' · 0–1 · Middlesbrough 29%, draw 28%, Cardiff 43%36' · 0–1 · Middlesbrough 29%, draw 28%, Cardiff 43%37' · 0–1 · Middlesbrough 28%, draw 28%, Cardiff 43%38' · 0–1 · Middlesbrough 28%, draw 28%, Cardiff 44%39' · 0–1 · Middlesbrough 28%, draw 28%, Cardiff 44%40' · 0–1 · Middlesbrough 27%, draw 29%, Cardiff 44%41' · 0–1 · Middlesbrough 27%, draw 29%, Cardiff 45%42' · 0–1 · Middlesbrough 26%, draw 29%, Cardiff 45%43' · 0–1 · Middlesbrough 26%, draw 29%, Cardiff 45%44' · 0–1 · Middlesbrough 25%, draw 29%, Cardiff 46%45' · 0–1 · Middlesbrough 25%, draw 29%, Cardiff 46%45+1' · 0–1 · Middlesbrough 25%, draw 29%, Cardiff 46%45+2' · 0–2 · Middlesbrough 6%, draw 14%, Cardiff 80%HT · 0–2 · Middlesbrough 6%, draw 14%, Cardiff 80%46' · 0–2 · Middlesbrough 6%, draw 14%, Cardiff 80%47' · 0–2 · Middlesbrough 6%, draw 14%, Cardiff 81%48' · 0–2 · Middlesbrough 5%, draw 13%, Cardiff 81%49' · 0–2 · Middlesbrough 5%, draw 13%, Cardiff 82%50' · 0–2 · Middlesbrough 5%, draw 13%, Cardiff 82%51' · 0–2 · Middlesbrough 5%, draw 13%, Cardiff 83%52' · 0–2 · Middlesbrough 5%, draw 12%, Cardiff 83%53' · 0–2 · Middlesbrough 4%, draw 12%, Cardiff 84%54' · 0–2 · Middlesbrough 4%, draw 12%, Cardiff 84%55' · 0–2 · Middlesbrough 4%, draw 11%, Cardiff 85%57' · 0–2 · Middlesbrough 3%, draw 11%, Cardiff 86%58' · 0–2 · Middlesbrough 3%, draw 11%, Cardiff 86%59' · 1–2 · Middlesbrough 16%, draw 29%, Cardiff 54%60' · 1–2 · Middlesbrough 16%, draw 29%, Cardiff 55%61' · 1–2 · Middlesbrough 15%, draw 29%, Cardiff 56%62' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 37%, draw 43%, Cardiff 20%63' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 37%, draw 44%, Cardiff 19%64' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 36%, draw 44%, Cardiff 19%65' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 36%, draw 45%, Cardiff 19%66' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 35%, draw 46%, Cardiff 19%67' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 35%, draw 47%, Cardiff 19%68' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 34%, draw 48%, Cardiff 18%69' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 33%, draw 48%, Cardiff 18%70' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 33%, draw 49%, Cardiff 18%71' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 32%, draw 50%, Cardiff 18%72' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 31%, draw 51%, Cardiff 17%73' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 31%, draw 52%, Cardiff 17%74' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 30%, draw 53%, Cardiff 17%75' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 29%, draw 54%, Cardiff 17%76' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 28%, draw 56%, Cardiff 16%77' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 27%, draw 57%, Cardiff 16%78' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 26%, draw 58%, Cardiff 15%79' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 26%, draw 60%, Cardiff 15%80' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 25%, draw 61%, Cardiff 14%81' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 24%, draw 62%, Cardiff 14%82' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 23%, draw 64%, Cardiff 13%83' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 22%, draw 66%, Cardiff 13%84' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 28%, draw 64%, Cardiff 8%85' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 27%, draw 66%, Cardiff 7%86' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 25%, draw 68%, Cardiff 7%87' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 23%, draw 70%, Cardiff 7%88' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 21%, draw 72%, Cardiff 6%89' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 19%, draw 75%, Cardiff 6%90' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 17%, draw 78%, Cardiff 5%90+1' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 15%, draw 81%, Cardiff 5%90+2' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 12%, draw 84%, Cardiff 4%90+3' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 10%, draw 87%, Cardiff 3%90+5' · 2–2 · Middlesbrough 4%, draw 94%, Cardiff 1%

Last reading, 90+5': 4% · 94% · 1%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Middlesbrough 56% to win: it ended in a draw.

  1. 19'Cardiff:Brian Barry-Murphy
  2. 22'Cardiff:Jack Moylan 2064 +9 assist Ollie·Tanner 1974 +12
  3. 25'Cardiff:Joel Bagan 1977 +5
  4. 45'Middlesbrough:will lankshear 2028 0 for Kyle Joseph 2054 −1
  5. 45'Middlesbrough:Sebastian Berhalter 2208 −5 for Luke Ayling 2030 −7
  6. 45'Cardiff:David Turnbull 1940 +2 for Joel Colwill 1944 +3
  7. 45+1'Cardiff:Ollie·Tanner 1974 +12 assist Jack Moylan 2064 +9
  8. 58'Middlesbrough:Tommy Conway 2064 −2 assist Callum Brittain 2124 −7
  9. 61'Middlesbrough:will lankshear 2028 0 assist Amario Cozier-Duberry 1971 0
  10. 63'Cardiff:William Fish 2002 +1 for Christopher Willock 1916 +3
  11. 73'Cardiff:Calum Scanlon 1328 +4 for Ronan Kpakio 1860 +6
  12. 74'Middlesbrough:Max Arfsten 2044 0 for Amario Cozier-Duberry 1971 0
  13. 79'Middlesbrough:Myles Peart-Harris 1948 0 for Riley McGree 2048 −2
  14. 79'Cardiff:Isaak Davies 1776 +1 for Ollie·Tanner 1974 +12
  15. 83'Cardiff:Gabriel Osho 1996 +3
  16. 88'Cardiff:Jack Moylan 2064 +9
  17. 89'Middlesbrough:Jeremy Sarmiento 2016 0 for Neto Borges 2099 −3

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations4-1-4-1
GR. Vítek2044−1
DC. Brittain2124−7
DL. Ayling2030−7
DA. Phillips19830
DNeto Borges2099−3
MA. Malanda2164−3
MA. Morris2120−2
MA. Cozier-Duberry19710
MR. McGree2048−2
MT. Conway2064−2
FK. Joseph2054−1
CK. Hellberg2133−4
GN. Trott1973+14
DR. Kpakio1860+6
DG. Osho1996+3
DK. Bielik1875−2*
DJ. Bagan1977+5
MA. Robertson1994+5
MO. Tanner1974+12
MCian Ashford1993+13
MJ. Colwill1944+3
MC. Willock1916+3
FJ. Moylan2064+9
CB. Barry-Murphy1960+10
Before kick-off: 56% · 24% · 20%(Middlesbrough · draw · Cardiff)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (11%); the result 2–2 had 5%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Middlesbrough €4.5M, Cardiff €1.4M.
  • Middlesbrough were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Middlesbrough

2nd in Championship · 21 pts from 10

  • 13 OctWStoke City 2054
  • 10 OctWWolves 2042
  • 19 SepDBirmingham 2012
  • 15 SepDMillwall 2032
  • 12 SepWNorwich 2022

Cardiff

19th in Championship · 10 pts from 10

  • 13 OctWWatford 1941
  • 10 OctLBlackburn 1942
  • 19 SepWCharlton 1916
  • 12 SepLBolton 1927
  • 8 SepDStoke City 1928

Season outlook

From the Championship simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Middlesbrough21 /1079.417%67%0%2nd
Cardiff10 /1055.30%1%15%19th
Middlesbrough
Cardiff

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Championship

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

L. Ayling
L. Ayling

Middlesbrough · +4.9 (Elite) · Elo 2037

A. Robertson
A. Robertson

Cardiff · +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1989

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Kim Alexander Hellberg

Coach DNA: dribble-heavy · possession-based

Brian Barry-Murphy

Coach DNA: possession-based

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Middlesbrough: possession-based (how Kim Alexander Hellberg plays) · Cardiff: balanced profile (how Brian Barry-Murphy plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.