Ligue 2 · Regular Season - 11
Metz vs PAU
Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz
Metz host PAU on Fri 30 Oct 2026 (Ligue 2); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Metz 47%, draw 28%, PAU 26%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Metz €837K, PAU €404K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Metz goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Metz 1666 · PAU 1599
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Metz · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 1728
PAU · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1625
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Metz
7th in Ligue 2 · 13 pts from 9
- 17 OctWSochaux France Ligue 21648
- 12 OctLDijon France Ligue 21676
- 19 SepDSaint Etienne France Ligue 21663
- 14 SepLRED Star FC 93 France Ligue 21659
- 5 SepWRodez France Ligue 21637
PAU
6th in Ligue 2 · 14 pts from 9
- 16 OctWGuingamp France Ligue 21575
- 9 OctWLaval France Ligue 21542
- 18 SepWDunkerque France Ligue 21503
- 11 SepLMontpellier France Ligue 21494
- 4 SepDSochaux France Ligue 21519
Season outlook
From the Ligue 2 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz | 13 /9 | 48.0 | <1% | 15% | 2% | 8th |
| PAU | 14 /9 | 44.9 | <1% | 6% | 6% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: low-block
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Metz: balanced profile (how Luc Holtz plays) · PAU: balanced profile (how Thierry Debès plays)