Ligue 2 · Regular Season - 13
Metz vs Boulogne
Fri 20 Nov 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz
Metz host Boulogne on Fri 20 Nov 2026 (Ligue 2); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Metz 51%, draw 27%, Boulogne 23%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Metz €884K, Boulogne €324K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Metz goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–26%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Metz 1628 · Boulogne 1515
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Metz · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 1718
Boulogne · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1513
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Metz
10th in Ligue 2 · 14 pts from 11
- 30 OctLPAU France Ligue 21629
- 23 OctDDunkerque France Ligue 21660
- 17 OctWSochaux France Ligue 21627
- 12 OctLDijon France Ligue 21676
- 19 SepDSaint Etienne France Ligue 21663
Boulogne
14th in Ligue 2 · 10 pts from 11
- 30 OctLLaval France Ligue 21525
- 26 OctDReims France Ligue 21520
- 16 OctWGrenoble France Ligue 21462
- 9 OctDSochaux France Ligue 21496
- 19 SepLNantes France Ligue 21424
Season outlook
From the Ligue 2 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz | 14 /11 | 43.4 | 0% | 3% | 7% | 11th |
| Boulogne | 10 /11 | 34.2 | 0% | <1% | 49% | 17th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Metz: balanced profile (how Luc Holtz plays) · Boulogne: balanced profile (how Fabien Dagneaux plays)