A-League · Regular Season - 3
Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 04:00 UTC · AAMI Park, Melbourne
Melbourne Victory host Central Coast Mariners on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (A-League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Melbourne Victory 53%, draw 26%, Central Coast Mariners 21%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Melbourne Victory €469K, Central Coast Mariners €275K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of A-League matchday 3: 162 points.
- Style contrast in attacking (A-League): Melbourne Victory rank #3 of 12, Central Coast Mariners #12.
- J. Donachie (Central Coast Mariners) has not played for over 90 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Melbourne Victory goals first.
- 1–112%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–07%
- 1–26%
- Other scores46%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.9 pts
Team Elo: Melbourne Victory 1639 · Central Coast Mariners 1477
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches; Central Coast Mariners from last season's line-ups (latest 25 April 2026).
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Melbourne Victory · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Elite) · Elo 1739
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Melbourne Victory
11th in A-League · 0 pts from 1
- 18 OctLWellington Phoenix A-League1673
- 14 OctWFC Seoul AFC Cup1627
- 2 MayLSydney A-League1703
- 25 AprWWestern Sydney Wanderers A-League1713
- 17 AprDNewcastle Jets A-League1690
Central Coast Mariners
4th in A-League · 1 pts from 1
- 17 OctDNewcastle Jets A-League1495
- 25 AprLNewcastle Jets A-League1498
- 19 AprWAuckland A-League1455
- 10 AprDBrisbane Roar A-League1462
- 7 AprLMelbourne City A-League1465
Season outlook
From the A-League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Victory | 0 /1 | 38.7 | 12% | 51% | 9% | 2nd |
| Central Coast Mariners | 1 /1 | 28.5 | <1% | 5% | 59% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Melbourne Victory: creative (how Giovanni Savarese Rubinaccio plays) · Central Coast Mariners: low-volume (how Warren Moon plays)