Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 9
Marseille vs Toulouse
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Orange Vélodrome, Marseille
Marseille host Toulouse on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (Ligue 1); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Marseille 60%, draw 23%, Toulouse 17%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Marseille €13.2M, Toulouse €5.2M.
- Style contrast in possession (Ligue 1): Marseille rank #3 of 18, Toulouse #17.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Marseille goals first.
- 1–111%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–07%
- 3–17%
- Other scores46%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 1.0 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 4.4 pts
Team Elo: Marseille 2063 · Toulouse 1841
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Marseille · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.7 (Good) · Elo 2008
Toulouse · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1842
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Marseille
9th in Ligue 1 · 9 pts from 7
- 18 OctWAngers Ligue 12072
- 15 OctLOlympiakos Piraeus UEFA Europa League2030
- 11 OctWEstac Troyes Ligue 12094
- 20 SepLParis Saint Germain Ligue 12118
- 17 SepLBeşiktaş UEFA Europa League2048
Toulouse
11th in Ligue 1 · 9 pts from 7
- 16 OctWLe Mans Ligue 11921
- 10 OctDMonaco Ligue 11837
- 19 SepWLe Havre Ligue 11822
- 12 SepDLorient Ligue 11788
- 3 SepLLille Ligue 11845
Season outlook
From the Ligue 1 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 9 /7 | 52.2 | 0% | 17% | 0% | 7th |
| Toulouse | 9 /7 | 37.1 | 0% | 0% | 16% | 13th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Marseille: possession-based (how Bruno Génésio plays) · Toulouse: balanced profile (how Jens Berthel Askou plays)