Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 11
Marseille vs Le Mans
Sun 22 Nov 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Orange Vélodrome, Marseille
Marseille host Le Mans on Sun 22 Nov 2026 (Ligue 1); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Marseille 74%, draw 17%, Le Mans 9%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Marseille €13.4M, Le Mans €878K.
- Draw chance 17%, below the Ligue 1 average of 24% this round.
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (Ligue 1): Marseille rank #18 of 18, Le Mans #3.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Marseille goals first.
- 2–012%
- 3–010%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 1–18%
- 3–18%
- Other scores43%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–0expected 1.2 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 5.3 pts
Team Elo: Marseille 2139 · Le Mans 1744
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Marseille · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 2202
Le Mans · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Good) · Elo 1825
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Marseille
4th in Ligue 1 · 18 pts from 10
- 8 NovWLens Ligue 12142
- 5 NovWBayer Leverkusen UEFA Europa League2119
- 1 NovWToulouse Ligue 12110
- 25 OctWLe Havre Ligue 12100
- 22 OctLSturm Graz UEFA Europa League2017
Le Mans
15th in Ligue 1 · 8 pts from 10
- 8 NovDMonaco Ligue 11703
- 31 OctLEstac Troyes Ligue 11753
- 25 OctDAuxerre Ligue 11762
- 16 OctLToulouse Ligue 11716
- 10 OctLParis Saint Germain Ligue 11722
Season outlook
From the Ligue 1 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 18 /10 | 59.8 | <1% | 60% | 0% | 2nd |
| Le Mans | 8 /10 | 28.3 | 0% | 0% | 68% | 17th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Marseille: possession-based (how Bruno Génésio plays) · Le Mans: balanced profile (how Patrick Videira plays)