Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 10
Maritimo vs Santa Clara
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 18:00 UTC
Maritimo host Santa Clara on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (Primeira Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Maritimo 41%, draw 29%, Santa Clara 30%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Maritimo €544K, Santa Clara €942K.
- Home advantage makes Maritimo the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Draw chance 29%, above the Primeira Liga average of 23% this round.
- Style contrast in discipline (Primeira Liga): Maritimo rank #4 of 18, Santa Clara #18.
- Santa Clara are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Maritimo goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–07%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Maritimo 1702 · Santa Clara 1712
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Maritimo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1681
Santa Clara · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1820
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Maritimo
11th in Primeira Liga · 8 pts from 8
- 10 OctLFC Porto Primeira Liga1707
- 19 SepDGIL Vicente Primeira Liga1707
- 14 SepLMoreirense Primeira Liga1675
- 5 SepLBenfica Primeira Liga1686
- 29 AugLArouca Primeira Liga1692
Santa Clara
4th in Primeira Liga · 18 pts from 8
- 10 OctWCasa Pia Primeira Liga1759
- 20 SepDSC Braga Primeira Liga1755
- 13 SepWArouca Primeira Liga1726
- 6 SepWRio Ave Primeira Liga1696
- 29 AugDAlverca Primeira Liga1674
Season outlook
From the Primeira Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo | 8 /8 | 37.3 | 0% | <1% | 21% | 14th |
| Santa Clara | 18 /8 | 46.6 | 0% | 6% | 1% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: low-volume
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Maritimo: balanced profile (how Mitchell van der Gaag plays) · Santa Clara: direct (how Petit plays)