Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 12
Maritimo vs Nacional
Fri 27 Nov 2026 · 20:15 UTC
Maritimo host Nacional on Fri 27 Nov 2026 (Primeira Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Maritimo 43%, draw 28%, Nacional 28%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Maritimo €632K, Nacional €970K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Maritimo goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–011%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–08%
- Other scores42%
Team Elo: Maritimo 1677 · Nacional 1656
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Maritimo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.0 (Average) · Elo 1845
Nacional · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Average) · Elo 1764
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Maritimo
15th in Primeira Liga · 8 pts from 10
- 1 NovLSanta Clara Primeira Liga1668
- 23 OctLVitória SC Primeira Liga1691
- 10 OctLFC Porto Primeira Liga1701
- 19 SepDGIL Vicente Primeira Liga1697
- 14 SepLMoreirense Primeira Liga1665
Nacional
13th in Primeira Liga · 10 pts from 11
- 8 NovWAcademico Viseu Primeira Liga1629
- 1 NovLArouca Primeira Liga1641
- 25 OctWSC Braga Primeira Liga1586
- 11 OctLRio Ave Primeira Liga1532
- 19 SepLFamalicao Primeira Liga1583
Season outlook
From the Primeira Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo | 8 /10 | 32.5 | 0% | <1% | 44% | 16th |
| Nacional | 10 /11 | 32.5 | 0% | 0% | 44% | 17th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: low-volume
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Maritimo: balanced profile (how M. van der Gaag plays) · Nacional: direct (how João Henriques plays)