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Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 8

Maritimo 1–2 FC Porto

Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 17:00 UTC · Estádio do Marítimo, Funchal

Maritimo crestMaritimoTeam 1658
1–2
Full time
HT 1–1
FC Porto crestFC PortoTeam 2297

Match story

Maritimo · draw · FC Porto

Before kick-off: 7% · 14% · 79%

Live chances: Maritimo 0%, draw 0%, FC Porto 100% at 90+7'1' · 0–0 · Maritimo 7%, draw 14%, FC Porto 79%2' · 0–0 · Maritimo 7%, draw 14%, FC Porto 79%3' · 0–0 · Maritimo 7%, draw 14%, FC Porto 79%4' · 0–0 · Maritimo 7%, draw 14%, FC Porto 78%5' · 0–0 · Maritimo 8%, draw 14%, FC Porto 78%6' · 0–0 · Maritimo 8%, draw 14%, FC Porto 78%7' · 0–0 · Maritimo 8%, draw 15%, FC Porto 78%8' · 0–0 · Maritimo 8%, draw 15%, FC Porto 77%9' · 0–0 · Maritimo 8%, draw 15%, FC Porto 77%10' · 0–0 · Maritimo 8%, draw 15%, FC Porto 77%11' · 0–0 · Maritimo 8%, draw 15%, FC Porto 77%12' · 0–0 · Maritimo 8%, draw 16%, FC Porto 76%13' · 0–0 · Maritimo 8%, draw 16%, FC Porto 76%14' · 0–0 · Maritimo 8%, draw 16%, FC Porto 76%15' · 0–0 · Maritimo 8%, draw 16%, FC Porto 76%16' · 0–0 · Maritimo 8%, draw 16%, FC Porto 75%17' · 1–0 · Maritimo 25%, draw 23%, FC Porto 53%18' · 1–0 · Maritimo 25%, draw 23%, FC Porto 52%19' · 1–0 · Maritimo 25%, draw 23%, FC Porto 52%20' · 1–0 · Maritimo 26%, draw 23%, FC Porto 51%21' · 1–0 · Maritimo 26%, draw 24%, FC Porto 51%22' · 1–0 · Maritimo 26%, draw 24%, FC Porto 50%23' · 1–0 · Maritimo 27%, draw 24%, FC Porto 49%24' · 1–0 · Maritimo 27%, draw 24%, FC Porto 49%25' · 1–0 · Maritimo 27%, draw 24%, FC Porto 48%26' · 1–0 · Maritimo 28%, draw 25%, FC Porto 48%27' · 1–0 · Maritimo 28%, draw 25%, FC Porto 47%28' · 1–0 · Maritimo 28%, draw 25%, FC Porto 47%29' · 1–0 · Maritimo 29%, draw 25%, FC Porto 46%30' · 1–0 · Maritimo 29%, draw 25%, FC Porto 45%31' · 1–0 · Maritimo 29%, draw 26%, FC Porto 45%32' · 1–0 · Maritimo 30%, draw 26%, FC Porto 44%33' · 1–0 · Maritimo 30%, draw 26%, FC Porto 44%34' · 1–0 · Maritimo 31%, draw 26%, FC Porto 43%35' · 1–0 · Maritimo 31%, draw 26%, FC Porto 42%36' · 1–0 · Maritimo 32%, draw 27%, FC Porto 42%37' · 1–0 · Maritimo 32%, draw 27%, FC Porto 41%39' · 1–0 · Maritimo 33%, draw 27%, FC Porto 40%40' · 1–0 · Maritimo 34%, draw 28%, FC Porto 39%41' · 1–0 · Maritimo 34%, draw 28%, FC Porto 38%42' · 1–0 · Maritimo 34%, draw 28%, FC Porto 38%43' · 1–1 · Maritimo 11%, draw 24%, FC Porto 65%44' · 1–1 · Maritimo 11%, draw 25%, FC Porto 65%45' · 1–1 · Maritimo 11%, draw 25%, FC Porto 64%45+1' · 1–1 · Maritimo 11%, draw 25%, FC Porto 64%HT · 1–1 · Maritimo 11%, draw 27%, FC Porto 62%46' · 1–1 · Maritimo 11%, draw 27%, FC Porto 62%47' · 1–1 · Maritimo 11%, draw 27%, FC Porto 62%48' · 1–1 · Maritimo 11%, draw 28%, FC Porto 61%49' · 1–1 · Maritimo 11%, draw 28%, FC Porto 61%50' · 1–1 · Maritimo 11%, draw 29%, FC Porto 60%51' · 1–1 · Maritimo 11%, draw 29%, FC Porto 59%52' · 1–1 · Maritimo 11%, draw 30%, FC Porto 59%53' · 1–1 · Maritimo 11%, draw 31%, FC Porto 58%54' · 1–1 · Maritimo 12%, draw 31%, FC Porto 57%55' · 1–1 · Maritimo 12%, draw 32%, FC Porto 56%56' · 1–1 · Maritimo 12%, draw 33%, FC Porto 55%57' · 1–1 · Maritimo 12%, draw 34%, FC Porto 55%58' · 1–1 · Maritimo 12%, draw 34%, FC Porto 54%59' · 1–1 · Maritimo 12%, draw 35%, FC Porto 53%60' · 1–1 · Maritimo 12%, draw 36%, FC Porto 52%61' · 1–1 · Maritimo 12%, draw 37%, FC Porto 51%62' · 1–1 · Maritimo 12%, draw 38%, FC Porto 51%63' · 1–1 · Maritimo 12%, draw 39%, FC Porto 50%64' · 1–1 · Maritimo 12%, draw 39%, FC Porto 49%65' · 1–1 · Maritimo 12%, draw 40%, FC Porto 48%66' · 1–1 · Maritimo 12%, draw 41%, FC Porto 47%67' · 1–1 · Maritimo 12%, draw 42%, FC Porto 46%68' · 1–1 · Maritimo 12%, draw 43%, FC Porto 45%69' · 1–1 · Maritimo 11%, draw 44%, FC Porto 44%70' · 1–1 · Maritimo 11%, draw 45%, FC Porto 43%71' · 1–1 · Maritimo 11%, draw 46%, FC Porto 42%72' · 1–1 · Maritimo 11%, draw 48%, FC Porto 41%73' · 1–1 · Maritimo 11%, draw 49%, FC Porto 40%74' · 1–1 · Maritimo 11%, draw 50%, FC Porto 39%75' · 1–1 · Maritimo 11%, draw 51%, FC Porto 38%76' · 1–1 · Maritimo 11%, draw 53%, FC Porto 37%77' · 1–1 · Maritimo 10%, draw 54%, FC Porto 35%78' · 1–1 · Maritimo 10%, draw 56%, FC Porto 34%79' · 1–1 · Maritimo 10%, draw 57%, FC Porto 33%80' · 1–1 · Maritimo 10%, draw 59%, FC Porto 32%81' · 1–1 · Maritimo 9%, draw 60%, FC Porto 30%82' · 1–1 · Maritimo 9%, draw 62%, FC Porto 29%83' · 1–1 · Maritimo 9%, draw 64%, FC Porto 27%84' · 1–2 · Maritimo 1%, draw 9%, FC Porto 90%85' · 1–2 · Maritimo 1%, draw 9%, FC Porto 91%86' · 1–2 · Maritimo 1%, draw 8%, FC Porto 91%87' · 1–2 · Maritimo 0%, draw 8%, FC Porto 92%88' · 1–2 · Maritimo 0%, draw 7%, FC Porto 92%89' · 1–2 · Maritimo 0%, draw 7%, FC Porto 93%90' · 1–2 · Maritimo 0%, draw 6%, FC Porto 94%90+1' · 1–2 · Maritimo 0%, draw 5%, FC Porto 94%90+2' · 1–2 · Maritimo 0%, draw 5%, FC Porto 95%90+3' · 1–2 · Maritimo 0%, draw 4%, FC Porto 96%90+4' · 1–2 · Maritimo 0%, draw 3%, FC Porto 97%90+5' · 1–2 · Maritimo 0%, draw 2%, FC Porto 98%90+6' · 1–2 · Maritimo 0%, draw 1%, FC Porto 99%90+7' · 1–2 · Maritimo 0%, draw 0%, FC Porto 100%

Last reading, 90+7': 0% · 0% · 100%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave FC Porto 79% to win: they did.

  1. 16'Maritimo:Gábor Szalai 1940 −16* assist Maxime Dominguez 1633 −10*
  2. 36'FC Porto:Alan Gonzalo Varela 2376 −5*
  3. 42'FC Porto:Victor Froholdt 2456 +12
  4. 45'FC Porto:Pablo Rosario 2358 +1 for Alan Gonzalo Varela 2376 −5*
  5. 54'FC Porto:Gabri Veiga 2392 −6* for Hwang In-Beom 2190 −5*
  6. 55'FC Porto:Borja Sainz 2253 −1* for William Gomes 2179 −3*
  7. 57'FC Porto:Eduardo Gabriel Aquino Cossa 2383 −5*
  8. 66'Maritimo:Simo Bouzaidi 1733 −8* for Tomas Tavares 1639 −8*
  9. 66'Maritimo:Rodri Andrade 1473 −8* for Maxime Dominguez 1633 −10*
  10. 66'FC Porto:Samuel Aghehowa 2303 −6* for André Silva 2106 −4*
  11. 78'Maritimo:Mons Rogeani Bassouamina 1495 −8* for Adrián Butzke 1726 −8*
  12. 79'Maritimo:Maurice Boakye 1427 −8* for Martín Tejón 1751 −8*
  13. 79'FC Porto:Oskar Pietuszewski 1940 +4 for Eduardo Gabriel Aquino Cossa 2383 −5*
  14. 84'FC Porto:Oskar Pietuszewski 1940 +4 assist Jakub Kiwior 2534 +9
  15. 87'Maritimo:Igor Julião 1627 −12*
  16. 89'Maritimo:Samuel Bamba 1653 −8* for Ibrahim Akitunde Alani 1457 −8*

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations4-3-3
GFran Vieites1880−13*
DTomás Tavares1639−8*
DG. Szalai1940−16*
DRomain Correia1746−8*
DPaulo Henrique1722−9*
MI. Alani1457−8*
MRaphael Guzzo1659−11*
MIgor Julião1627−12*
MM. Dominguez1633−10*
MMartín Tejón1751−8*
FAdrián Butzke1726−8*
CM. van der Gaag1719−8*
GDiogo Costa2617+7
DAlberto Baio2330−2*
DJ. Bednarek2473+9
DJ. Kiwior2534+9
DFrancisco Moura2278−1*
MVictor Mow Froholdt2456+12
MA. Varela2376−5*
MHwang In-Beom2190−5*
FWilliam2179−3*
FAndré Silva2106−4*
FPepê Aquino2383−5*
CF. Farioli2417+1*
Before kick-off: 7% · 14% · 79%(Maritimo · draw · FC Porto)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 0–2 (10%); the result 1–2 had 8%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Maritimo €689K, FC Porto €18.7M.
  • Largest team-Elo gap of Primeira Liga matchday 8: 609 points.
  • Draw chance was 15%, below the Primeira Liga average of 25% this round.
  • Primeira Liga: Diogo Costa was the highest-rated goalkeeper (2611).

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Maritimo

11th in Primeira Liga · 8 pts from 7

  • 19 SepDGIL Vicente 1707
  • 14 SepLMoreirense 1675
  • 5 SepLBenfica 1686
  • 29 AugLArouca 1692
  • 22 AugDAcademico Viseu 1695

FC Porto

1st in Primeira Liga · 21 pts from 7

  • 20 SepWBenfica 2331
  • 12 SepWCasa Pia 2304
  • 8 SepLManchester City 2311
  • 4 SepWMoreirense 2338
  • 29 AugWAcademico Viseu 2335

Season outlook

From the Primeira Liga simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Maritimo8 /737.90%1%20%13th
FC Porto21 /785.682%100%0%1st
Maritimo
FC Porto

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Primeira Liga

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

G. Szalai
G. Szalai

Maritimo · +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1956

Diogo Costa
Diogo Costa

FC Porto · +5.1 (Good) · Elo 2611

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Mitchell van der Gaag

Coach DNA: low-volume

Francesco Farioli

Coach DNA: possession-based

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Maritimo: balanced profile (how Mitchell van der Gaag plays) · FC Porto: possession-based (how Francesco Farioli plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.