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Veikkausliiga · Relegation Group - 26

Mariehamn 1–1 Ilves

Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Wiklöf Holding Arena, Marie Harbor

Mariehamn crestMariehamnTeam 1185
1–1
Full time
HT 0–0
Ilves crestIlvesTeam 1446

Match story

Mariehamn · draw · Ilves

Before kick-off: 23% · 30% · 47%

Live chances: Mariehamn 5%, draw 89%, Ilves 6% at 90+2'2' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 30%, Ilves 47%3' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 30%, Ilves 47%4' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 30%, Ilves 47%5' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 30%, Ilves 47%6' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 30%, Ilves 47%7' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 30%, Ilves 46%8' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 31%, Ilves 46%9' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 31%, Ilves 46%10' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 31%, Ilves 46%11' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 31%, Ilves 46%12' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 31%, Ilves 46%13' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 31%, Ilves 45%14' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 32%, Ilves 45%15' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 32%, Ilves 45%16' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 32%, Ilves 45%17' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 32%, Ilves 45%18' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 32%, Ilves 44%19' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 33%, Ilves 44%20' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 33%, Ilves 44%21' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 33%, Ilves 44%22' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 33%, Ilves 44%23' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 34%, Ilves 43%24' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 34%, Ilves 43%25' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 34%, Ilves 43%26' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 34%, Ilves 43%27' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 34%, Ilves 43%28' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 35%, Ilves 42%29' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 35%, Ilves 42%30' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 35%, Ilves 42%31' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 36%, Ilves 42%32' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 36%, Ilves 41%33' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 36%, Ilves 41%34' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 36%, Ilves 41%35' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 23%, draw 37%, Ilves 41%36' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 22%, draw 37%, Ilves 40%37' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 22%, draw 37%, Ilves 40%38' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 22%, draw 38%, Ilves 40%39' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 22%, draw 38%, Ilves 40%40' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 22%, draw 38%, Ilves 39%41' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 22%, draw 39%, Ilves 39%42' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 22%, draw 39%, Ilves 39%43' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 22%, draw 39%, Ilves 39%44' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 22%, draw 40%, Ilves 38%45' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 22%, draw 40%, Ilves 38%45+1' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 22%, draw 41%, Ilves 38%45+2' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 22%, draw 41%, Ilves 37%45+3' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 22%, draw 41%, Ilves 37%45+4' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 22%, draw 42%, Ilves 37%45+5' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 22%, draw 42%, Ilves 37%HT · 0–0 · Mariehamn 22%, draw 42%, Ilves 37%46' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 21%, draw 42%, Ilves 37%47' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 21%, draw 42%, Ilves 37%48' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 21%, draw 43%, Ilves 36%49' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 21%, draw 43%, Ilves 36%50' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 21%, draw 44%, Ilves 35%51' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 21%, draw 44%, Ilves 35%52' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 21%, draw 45%, Ilves 35%53' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 21%, draw 45%, Ilves 34%54' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 20%, draw 46%, Ilves 34%55' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 20%, draw 47%, Ilves 33%56' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 20%, draw 47%, Ilves 33%57' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 20%, draw 48%, Ilves 32%58' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 20%, draw 49%, Ilves 32%59' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 19%, draw 49%, Ilves 31%60' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 19%, draw 50%, Ilves 31%61' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 19%, draw 51%, Ilves 30%62' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 19%, draw 52%, Ilves 30%63' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 18%, draw 52%, Ilves 29%64' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 18%, draw 53%, Ilves 29%65' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 18%, draw 54%, Ilves 28%66' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 18%, draw 55%, Ilves 28%67' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 17%, draw 56%, Ilves 27%68' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 17%, draw 56%, Ilves 27%69' · 0–0 · Mariehamn 17%, draw 57%, Ilves 26%70' · 0–1 · Mariehamn 3%, draw 17%, Ilves 80%71' · 0–1 · Mariehamn 3%, draw 17%, Ilves 81%72' · 0–1 · Mariehamn 2%, draw 16%, Ilves 81%73' · 0–1 · Mariehamn 2%, draw 16%, Ilves 82%74' · 0–1 · Mariehamn 2%, draw 16%, Ilves 82%75' · 0–1 · Mariehamn 2%, draw 15%, Ilves 83%77' · 0–1 · Mariehamn 2%, draw 15%, Ilves 84%78' · 0–1 · Mariehamn 2%, draw 14%, Ilves 84%79' · 0–1 · Mariehamn 1%, draw 14%, Ilves 85%80' · 0–1 · Mariehamn 1%, draw 13%, Ilves 85%81' · 0–1 · Mariehamn 1%, draw 13%, Ilves 86%82' · 0–1 · Mariehamn 1%, draw 12%, Ilves 87%83' · 0–1 · Mariehamn 1%, draw 12%, Ilves 87%84' · 1–1 · Mariehamn 10%, draw 75%, Ilves 15%85' · 1–1 · Mariehamn 10%, draw 76%, Ilves 14%87' · 1–1 · Mariehamn 9%, draw 79%, Ilves 12%88' · 1–1 · Mariehamn 8%, draw 81%, Ilves 11%89' · 1–1 · Mariehamn 7%, draw 83%, Ilves 10%90' · 1–1 · Mariehamn 6%, draw 85%, Ilves 9%90+1' · 1–1 · Mariehamn 6%, draw 87%, Ilves 8%90+2' · 1–1 · Mariehamn 5%, draw 89%, Ilves 6%

Last reading, 90+2': 5% · 89% · 6%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Ilves 47% to win: it ended in a draw.

  1. 35'Mariehamn:Samson Ngulube 1174 −3*
  2. 43'Ilves:Sauli Väisänen 1514 −13*
  3. 45+3'Ilves:Goudouss Bamba 1344 −8*
  4. 64'Mariehamn:Aaro Soiniemi 1281 −4* for Samson Ngulube 1174 −3*
  5. 64'Mariehamn:Thomas Klemetsen Jakobsen 1014 −1* for Anttoni Huttunen 1086 −2*
  6. 66'Ilves:Matias Rale 1527 −11*
  7. 66'Ilves:Maksim Stjopin 1521 −9* for Goudouss Bamba 1344 −8*
  8. 66'Ilves:Yiandro Raap 1441 −8* for Oskari Multala 1410 −8*
  9. 67'Ilves:Stanislav Baranov 1149 −8* for Elias Tamminen 1331 −8*
  10. 69'Ilves:Teemu Hytönen 1526 −11*
  11. 74'Mariehamn:Arvid Bergvik 1284 −3*
  12. 78'Ilves:Tatu Miettunen 1458 −11* for Matias Rale 1527 −11*
  13. 81'Mariehamn:Marlo Hyvonen 1279 −7* for Adam Larsson 1318 −4*
  14. 84'Mariehamn:Thomas Klemetsen Jakobsen 1014 −1* assist Ludvig Richtner 1497 −3*
  15. 87'Ilves:Hamidou Coulibaly 1228 −8* for Teemu Hytönen 1526 −11*
  16. 88'Mariehamn:Wille Nuñez 954 −7* for Adam Stroud 1124 −1*

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations3-4-3
GK. Lund1310−4*
DA. Stroud1124−1*
DT. Koivisto1156+9*
DN. Nurmi1234+6*
DSamson Ngulube1174−3*
MV. Widlund1164+9*
ME. Patut1183−2*
ML. Richtnér1497−3*
MA. Huttunen1086−2*
MArvid Bergvik1284−3*
FA. Larsson1318−4*
CR. Björknesjö1464−4*
GF. Krkalić1563−10*
DV. Kumpu1459−8*
DS. Väisänen1514−13*
DM. Rale1527−11*
MO. Multala1410−8*
MGoudouss Bamba1344−8*
MA. Popovitch1473−11*
MJ. Kilo1381−8*
FE. Tamminen1331−8*
FT. Hytönen1526−11*
FK. Wallius1522−9*
CCamilo Speranza1361−8*
Before kick-off: 23% · 30% · 47%(Mariehamn · draw · Ilves)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%), and that was the result.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Mariehamn €114K, Ilves €210K.
  • Style contrast in attacking (Veikkausliiga): Mariehamn ranked #8 of 9, Ilves #4.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Mariehamn

12th in Veikkausliiga · 14 pts from 22

  • 18 SepLSJK 1210
  • 12 SepWTurku PS 1273
  • 8 SepLLahti 1225
  • 31 AugWFF Jaro 1249
  • 15 AugWSJK 1246

Ilves

9th in Veikkausliiga · 25 pts from 22

  • 19 SepWTurku PS 1443
  • 12 SepWLahti 1436
  • 8 SepWFF Jaro 1430
  • 31 AugLHJK Helsinki 1424
  • 22 AugLVPS 1430

Season outlook

From the Veikkausliiga simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Mariehamn17 /2519.60%0%100%11th
Ilves34 /2537.20%0%0%8th
Mariehamn
Ilves

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Veikkausliiga

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

E. Patut
E. Patut

Mariehamn · -2.7 (Poor) · Elo 1184

S. Väisänen
S. Väisänen

Ilves · +0.7 (Good) · Elo 1527

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Carl Roberth Björknesjö

Coach DNA: low-volume · direct

Camilo Speranza

Coach DNA: –

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Mariehamn: balanced profile (how Carl Roberth Björknesjö plays) · Ilves: balanced profile (how Camilo Speranza plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.