1. Lig · Regular Season - 12
Mardin 1969 vs Manisa F.K.
Mon 26 Oct 2026 · 17:00 UTC
Mardin 1969 host Manisa F.K. on Mon 26 Oct 2026 (1. Lig); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Mardin 1969 53%, draw 26%, Manisa F.K. 21%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Mardin 1969 €582K, Manisa F.K. €367K.
- All 11 of Mardin 1969's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Mardin 1969 goals first.
- 1–112%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–07%
- 1–26%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Mardin 1969 1660 · Manisa F.K. 1544
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Mardin 1969 · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1905
Manisa F.K. · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1611
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Mardin 1969
5th in 1. Lig · 18 pts from 10
- 15 OctWFatih Karagümrük Turkey 1 Lig1716
- 11 OctWBursaspor Turkey 1 Lig1687
- 20 SepLKayserispor Turkey 1 Lig1681
- 13 SepLIğdır FK Turkey 1 Lig1605
- 7 SepWBodrum FK Turkey 1 Lig1622
Manisa F.K.
14th in 1. Lig · 10 pts from 10
- 15 OctDEsenler Erokspor Turkey 1 Lig1552
- 10 OctLKayserispor Turkey 1 Lig1613
- 20 SepLİstanbulspor Turkey 1 Lig1631
- 13 SepDFatih Karagümrük Turkey 1 Lig1634
- 7 SepLBursaspor Turkey 1 Lig1643
Season outlook
From the 1. Lig simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mardin 1969 | 18 /10 | 58.5 | 1% | 26% | <1% | 4th |
| Manisa F.K. | 10 /10 | 42.2 | 0% | <1% | 26% | 17th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –