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1. Lig · Regular Season - 10

Mardin 1969 1–0 Fatih Karagümrük

Thu 15 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · 21 Kasım Stadium, Mardin

Mardin 1969 crestMardin 1969Team 1636
1–0
Full time
HT 1–0
Fatih Karagümrük crestFatih KaragümrükTeam 1611

Match story

Mardin 1969 · draw · Fatih Karagümrük

Before kick-off: 45% · 28% · 27%

Live chances: Mardin 1969 97%, draw 3%, Fatih Karagümrük 0% at 90+4'1' · 0–0 · Mardin 1969 45%, draw 28%, Fatih Karagümrük 27%3' · 0–0 · Mardin 1969 45%, draw 28%, Fatih Karagümrük 27%4' · 0–0 · Mardin 1969 45%, draw 29%, Fatih Karagümrük 27%5' · 0–0 · Mardin 1969 45%, draw 29%, Fatih Karagümrük 27%6' · 0–0 · Mardin 1969 44%, draw 29%, Fatih Karagümrük 27%7' · 0–0 · Mardin 1969 44%, draw 29%, Fatih Karagümrük 27%8' · 0–0 · Mardin 1969 44%, draw 29%, Fatih Karagümrük 27%10' · 0–0 · Mardin 1969 44%, draw 29%, Fatih Karagümrük 27%11' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 72%, draw 18%, Fatih Karagümrük 9%12' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 72%, draw 18%, Fatih Karagümrük 9%14' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 72%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 9%15' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 72%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 9%16' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 72%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 9%17' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 72%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 9%18' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 72%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 9%19' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 72%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 9%21' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 73%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 9%22' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 73%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 9%23' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 73%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 9%24' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 73%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 8%25' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 73%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 8%26' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 73%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 8%27' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 73%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 8%28' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 73%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 8%29' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 73%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 8%30' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 73%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 8%31' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 73%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 8%33' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 73%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 8%34' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 73%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 8%35' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 73%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 8%36' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 73%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 7%38' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 74%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 7%40' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 74%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 7%41' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 74%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 7%42' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 74%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 7%43' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 74%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 7%44' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 74%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 7%45+1' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 74%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 6%45+2' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 75%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 6%45+3' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 75%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 6%45+4' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 75%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 6%45+6' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 75%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 6%HT · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 75%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 6%46' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 75%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 6%47' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 75%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 6%48' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 75%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 6%49' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 75%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 6%50' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 75%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 6%51' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 76%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 5%52' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 76%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 5%53' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 76%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 5%54' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 76%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 5%55' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 76%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 5%56' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 77%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 5%57' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 77%, draw 19%, Fatih Karagümrük 5%58' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 77%, draw 18%, Fatih Karagümrük 4%59' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 77%, draw 18%, Fatih Karagümrük 4%60' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 78%, draw 18%, Fatih Karagümrük 4%61' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 78%, draw 18%, Fatih Karagümrük 4%62' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 78%, draw 18%, Fatih Karagümrük 4%63' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 78%, draw 18%, Fatih Karagümrük 4%64' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 79%, draw 18%, Fatih Karagümrük 4%65' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 79%, draw 17%, Fatih Karagümrük 3%66' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 79%, draw 17%, Fatih Karagümrük 3%67' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 80%, draw 17%, Fatih Karagümrük 3%68' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 80%, draw 17%, Fatih Karagümrük 3%69' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 80%, draw 17%, Fatih Karagümrük 3%70' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 81%, draw 16%, Fatih Karagümrük 3%71' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 81%, draw 16%, Fatih Karagümrük 3%72' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 82%, draw 16%, Fatih Karagümrük 2%73' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 82%, draw 16%, Fatih Karagümrük 2%74' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 82%, draw 15%, Fatih Karagümrük 2%75' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 83%, draw 15%, Fatih Karagümrük 2%76' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 83%, draw 15%, Fatih Karagümrük 2%77' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 84%, draw 14%, Fatih Karagümrük 2%78' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 84%, draw 14%, Fatih Karagümrük 2%79' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 85%, draw 14%, Fatih Karagümrük 2%80' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 85%, draw 13%, Fatih Karagümrük 1%81' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 86%, draw 13%, Fatih Karagümrük 1%82' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 87%, draw 12%, Fatih Karagümrük 1%83' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 87%, draw 12%, Fatih Karagümrük 1%84' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 88%, draw 11%, Fatih Karagümrük 1%85' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 89%, draw 11%, Fatih Karagümrük 1%86' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 89%, draw 10%, Fatih Karagümrük 1%87' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 90%, draw 9%, Fatih Karagümrük 1%88' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 91%, draw 9%, Fatih Karagümrük 0%89' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 92%, draw 8%, Fatih Karagümrük 0%90' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 93%, draw 7%, Fatih Karagümrük 0%90+1' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 94%, draw 6%, Fatih Karagümrük 0%90+2' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 95%, draw 5%, Fatih Karagümrük 0%90+3' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 96%, draw 4%, Fatih Karagümrük 0%90+4' · 1–0 · Mardin 1969 97%, draw 3%, Fatih Karagümrük 0%

Last reading, 90+4': 97% · 3% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Mardin 1969 45% to win: they did.

  1. 10'Mardin 1969:Zdravko Dimitrov 1905 +17 assist Olarenwaju Kayode 1786 +20
  2. 18'Mardin 1969:Adem Eren Kabak 1766 +34
  3. 31'Mardin 1969:Eray Korkmaz 1439 +49 for Kerim Alıcı 1737 +10
  4. 38'Mardin 1969:Tonio Teklić 1760 +7
  5. 55'Mardin 1969:Şahverdi Çetin 1388 +7* for Tonio Teklić 1760 +7
  6. 55'Mardin 1969:Emre Taşdemir 1659 +15 for Mallik Wilks 1769 +7
  7. 65'Fatih Karagümrük:J. Esen for Ramazan Civelek 1744 −3
  8. 65'Fatih Karagümrük:Tiago Cukur 1777 −1 for Baris Kalayci 1584 0
  9. 72'Mardin 1969:O. Yıldırım for Đorđe Denić 1787 +6
  10. 73'Mardin 1969:Berkay Dogan 1129 +23 for Olarenwaju Kayode 1786 +20
  11. 80'Fatih Karagümrük:Marius Tresor Doh 1652 −8* for Manolis Siopis 1880 −15
  12. 84'Fatih Karagümrük:Tarık Buğra Kalpaklı 1284 −8* for Yaya Onogo 1497 0
  13. 90'Fatih Karagümrük:Anil Cinar 1809 −7
  14. 90+3'Mardin 1969:Emre Taşdemir 1659 +15

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-4-2Formations4-2-3-1
GE. Kardeşler1875+6
DK. Alıcı1737+10
DM. Şengül1393+88
DU. Gezer1801+27
DN. Yardımcı1565+62
MT. Teklić1760+7
MA. Kabak1766+34
MM. Wilks1769+7
MZ. Dimitrov1905+17
FO. Kayode1786+20
FĐ. Denić1787+6
CAhmet Cingoz1346
GM. Silvestri1733−4
DM. Sarıkaya13290
DD. Biraschi1808−11
DA. Çınar1809−7
DCandan Baskale13570
MY. Onogo14970
MM. Siopis1880−15
MBaris Kalayci15840
ME. Akbaba1693−6
MR. Civelek1744−3
FC. Tosun1395−7
CA. Stanojević17150
Before kick-off: 45% · 28% · 27%(Mardin 1969 · draw · Fatih Karagümrük)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 1–0 had 10%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Mardin 1969 €599K, Fatih Karagümrük €502K.
  • Home advantage made Mardin 1969 the favourite: it added 8 points to their win chance.
  • All 11 of Mardin 1969's expected starters were past their position's peak age.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Mardin 1969

6th in 1. Lig · 15 pts from 9

  • 11 OctWBursaspor 1687
  • 20 SepLKayserispor 1681
  • 13 SepLIğdır FK 1605
  • 7 SepWBodrum FK 1622
  • 2 SepDSivasspor 1575

Fatih Karagümrük

10th in 1. Lig · 13 pts from 9

  • 11 OctDMuğlaspor 1680
  • 19 SepWEsenler Erokspor 1646
  • 13 SepDManisa F.K. 1686
  • 6 SepLBatman Petrolspor 1724
  • 2 SepDKayserispor 1731

Season outlook

From the 1. Lig simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Mardin 196915 /955.0<1%16%1%7th
Fatih Karagümrük13 /957.11%23%1%5th
Mardin 1969
Fatih Karagümrük

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: 1. Lig

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Z. Dimitrov
Z. Dimitrov

Mardin 1969 · +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1889

D. Biraschi
D. Biraschi

Fatih Karagümrük · +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1819

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Ahmet Cingoz

Coach DNA: –

Aleksandar Stanojević

Coach DNA: balanced profile

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.