Serie B · Regular Season - 7
Mantova 0–2 Palermo
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:15 UTC · Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova
MantovaTeam 1747PalermoTeam 1930- Jacopo Segre 62'
- Hernani 86'
We gave Palermo 43% to win: they did.
- 21'Mattia Bani –Palermo:Mattia Bani –
- Lorenzo Ignacchiti – for Rares Ilie –55'Mantova:Lorenzo Ignacchiti – for Rares Ilie –
- 62'Jacopo Segre –Palermo:Jacopo Segre –
- 66'Nahuel Estévez – for Filippo·Ranocchia –Palermo:Nahuel Estévez – for Filippo·Ranocchia –
- Ettore Gliozzi – for Francesco Ruocco –74'Mantova:Ettore Gliozzi – for Francesco Ruocco –
- Ismael Cajazzo – for Rachid Kouda –74'Mantova:Ismael Cajazzo – for Rachid Kouda –
- 77'Hernani – for Dennis Johnsen –Palermo:Hernani – for Dennis Johnsen –
- 77'Alessandro Gabrielloni – for Joel Pohjanpalo –Palermo:Alessandro Gabrielloni – for Joel Pohjanpalo –
- Jean-Pierre Longonda Itamba Mboyo – for Tommaso Del Lungo84'Mantova:Jean-Pierre Longonda Itamba Mboyo – for Tommaso Del Lungo
- 84'Patryk Peda – for Jacopo Segre –Palermo:Patryk Peda – for Jacopo Segre –
- 84'Luca Mazzitelli – for Antonio Palumbo –Palermo:Luca Mazzitelli – for Antonio Palumbo –
- 86'Hernani – assist Dominic Vavassori –Palermo:Hernani – assist Dominic Vavassori –
Before kick-off (provisional): 29% · 28% · 43%(Mantova · draw · Palermo)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 0–2 had 8%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Mantova €907K, Palermo €1.9M.
- Serie B: M. Bani was the highest-rated defender (1991).
- Palermo were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Mantova
2nd in Serie B · 14 pts from 6
- 11 OctWCatanzaro Italy Serie B1757
- 20 SepDPisa Italy Serie B1763
- 13 SepWSampdoria Italy Serie B1731
- 6 SepDCesena Italy Serie B1694
- 3 SepLPalermo Italy Coppa Italia1725
Palermo
1st in Serie B · 16 pts from 6
- 10 OctWEmpoli Italy Serie B1934
- 19 SepWPadova Italy Serie B1929
- 13 SepDAvellino Italy Serie B1889
- 7 SepWSampdoria Italy Serie B1947
- 3 SepWMantova Italy Coppa Italia1803
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mantova | 14 /6 | 62.2 | 5% | 52% | 0% | 2nd |
| Palermo | 16 /6 | 77.4 | 80% | 99% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Mantova · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1891
Palermo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Elite) · Elo 2030
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Mantova: possession-based (how Francesco Modesto plays) · Palermo: balanced profile (how Filippo Inzaghi plays)