Serie B · Regular Season - 11
Mantova vs Hellas Verona
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 16:15 UTC · Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova
Mantova host Hellas Verona on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (Serie B); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Mantova 37%, draw 29%, Hellas Verona 34%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Mantova €939K, Hellas Verona €2.0M.
- Home advantage makes Mantova the favourite here: it adds 8 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in possession (Serie B): Mantova rank #1 of 20, Hellas Verona #20.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Mantova goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Mantova 1736 · Hellas Verona 1813
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Mantova · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1881
Hellas Verona · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1860
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Mantova
2nd in Serie B · 14 pts from 7
- 17 OctLPalermo Italy Serie B1801
- 11 OctWCatanzaro Italy Serie B1757
- 20 SepDPisa Italy Serie B1763
- 13 SepWSampdoria Italy Serie B1731
- 6 SepDCesena Italy Serie B1694
Hellas Verona
11th in Serie B · 8 pts from 7
- 16 OctDCatanzaro Italy Serie B1770
- 11 OctLModena Italy Serie B1763
- 20 SepWVicenza Virtus Italy Serie B1800
- 11 SepLBenevento Italy Serie B1822
- 6 SepWArezzo Italy Serie B1836
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mantova | 14 /7 | 59.8 | 2% | 44% | <1% | 3rd |
| Hellas Verona | 8 /7 | 57.2 | 1% | 32% | 1% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Mantova: possession-based (how Francesco Modesto plays) · Hellas Verona: direct · high-pressing (how Marco Baroni plays)