Premier League · Regular Season - 6
Manchester United 1–1 Tottenham
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 16:30 UTC · Old Trafford, Manchester
Manchester UnitedTeam 2423TottenhamTeam 2326Match story
Manchester United · draw · TottenhamBefore kick-off: 50% · 26% · 24%
Last reading, 90+9': 0% · 100% · 0%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Bryan Mbeumo 73'
- Dominic Solanke 90+2'
We gave Manchester United 50% to win: it ended in a draw.
- 4'Conor Gallagher 2321 −5*Tottenham:Conor Gallagher 2321 −5*
- Joshua Zirkzee 2204 0 for Amad Diallo 2397 −8*59'Manchester United:Joshua Zirkzee 2204 0 for Amad Diallo 2397 −8*
- Diogo Dalot 2418 −1 for Leny Yoro 2325 −159'Manchester United:Diogo Dalot 2418 −1 for Leny Yoro 2325 −1
- Carlos Baleba 2290 −8* for Youri Tielemans 2475 −359'Manchester United:Carlos Baleba 2290 −8* for Youri Tielemans 2475 −3
- 66'Rodrigo Bentancur 2286 −9* for Lucas Bergvall 2246 +3Tottenham:Rodrigo Bentancur 2286 −9* for Lucas Bergvall 2246 +3
- 66'Omar Marmoush 2463 −8* for Mohammed Kudus 2327 −5*Tottenham:Omar Marmoush 2463 −8* for Mohammed Kudus 2327 −5*
- Bryan Mbeumo 2424 −12* assist Matheus Cunha 2383 −11*73'Manchester United:Bryan Mbeumo 2424 −12* assist Matheus Cunha 2383 −11*
- 74'James Maddison 2207 −9* for Conor Gallagher 2321 −5*Tottenham:James Maddison 2207 −9* for Conor Gallagher 2321 −5*
- 74'Micky van de Ven 2353 +1 for Destiny Udogie 2308 +1*Tottenham:Micky van de Ven 2353 +1 for Destiny Udogie 2308 +1*
- 78'Rodrigo Bentancur 2286 −9*Tottenham:Rodrigo Bentancur 2286 −9*
- 78'Jan Paul van Hecke 2381 −5*Tottenham:Jan Paul van Hecke 2381 −5*
- Luke Shaw 2398 −11*78'Manchester United:Luke Shaw 2398 −11*
- Bruno Fernandes 2422 −584'Manchester United:Bruno Fernandes 2422 −5
- Lisandro Martínez 2399 −10*87'Manchester United:Lisandro Martínez 2399 −10*
- 89'Mateus Fernandes 2256 −8* for Marcos Senesi 2331 +1*Tottenham:Mateus Fernandes 2256 −8* for Marcos Senesi 2331 +1*
- 90+2'Dominic Solanke 2224 +4* assist Sandro Tonali 2364 +9Tottenham:Dominic Solanke 2224 +4* assist Sandro Tonali 2364 +9
- Marcus Rashford 2491 −9* for Matheus Cunha 2383 −11*90+5'Manchester United:Marcus Rashford 2491 −9* for Matheus Cunha 2383 −11*
- Ayden Heaven 1965 −8* for Luke Shaw 2398 −11*90+5'Manchester United:Ayden Heaven 1965 −8* for Luke Shaw 2398 −11*
- Diogo Dalot 2418 −190+6'Manchester United:Diogo Dalot 2418 −1
- 90+8'Archie Gray 2237 −3*Tottenham:Archie Gray 2237 −3*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 50% · 26% · 24%(Manchester United · draw · Tottenham)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%), and that was the result.
- Average value of the starting XI: Manchester United €28.7M, Tottenham €31.8M.
- Tottenham were without 1 expected starter: Pedro Porro (2459).
- Manchester United's expected eleven was in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Manchester United
12th in Premier League · 5 pts from 5
- 20 SepDFulham Premier League2414
- 16 SepLBrighton England League Cup2242
- 13 SepLManchester City Premier League2419
- 10 SepWSabah FA UEFA Champions League2382
- 6 SepDEverton Premier League2436
Tottenham
20th in Premier League · 2 pts from 5
- 19 SepLAston Villa Premier League2340
- 15 SepLLiverpool England League Cup2279
- 12 SepDEverton Premier League2325
- 5 SepDNottingham Forest Premier League2343
- 29 AugLNewcastle Premier League2314
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 5 /5 | 54.6 | 0% | 18% | 1% | 5th |
| Tottenham | 2 /5 | 49.0 | 0% | 5% | 6% | 11th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Manchester United · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Good) · Elo 2428
Tottenham · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.4 (Good) · Elo 2386
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Manchester United: creative · shot-heavy (how Michael Carrick plays) · Tottenham: dribble-heavy (how Roberto De Zerbi plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.