Premier League · Regular Season - 8
Manchester United vs Bournemouth
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Old Trafford, Manchester
Manchester United host Bournemouth on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Manchester United 52%, draw 26%, Bournemouth 22%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Manchester United €35.7M, Bournemouth €24.5M.
- Manchester United's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.4 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Manchester United goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–26%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.9 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 4.0 pts
Team Elo: Manchester United 2361 · Bournemouth 2237
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Manchester United · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Good) · Elo 2408
Bournemouth · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 2387
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Manchester United
13th in Premier League · 7 pts from 7
- 18 OctDLeeds Premier League2376
- 13 OctLAtletico Madrid UEFA Champions League2365
- 10 OctDTottenham Premier League2404
- 20 SepDFulham Premier League2414
- 16 SepLBrighton England League Cup2242
Bournemouth
15th in Premier League · 6 pts from 7
- 18 OctWSunderland Premier League2266
- 15 OctWSturm Graz UEFA Europa League2185
- 10 OctLChelsea Premier League2269
- 20 SepLLiverpool Premier League2299
- 17 SepWReal Sociedad UEFA Europa League2289
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 7 /7 | 53.3 | 0% | 10% | 1% | 7th |
| Bournemouth | 6 /7 | 44.5 | 0% | 1% | 13% | 14th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Manchester United: creative (how Michael Carrick plays) · Bournemouth: balanced profile (how Marco Rose plays)