Premier League · Regular Season - 10
Manchester United vs Aston Villa
Sun 8 Nov 2026 · 16:30 UTC · Old Trafford, Manchester
Manchester United host Aston Villa on Sun 8 Nov 2026 (Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Manchester United 40%, draw 29%, Aston Villa 31%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Manchester United €34.7M, Aston Villa €28.6M.
- Home advantage makes Manchester United the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (Premier League): Manchester United rank #4 of 20, Aston Villa #19.
- Manchester United's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.5 over 180 days.
- Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Manchester United goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–27%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.4 pts
Team Elo: Manchester United 2359 · Aston Villa 2370
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Manchester United · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Good) · Elo 2395
Aston Villa · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.7 (Elite) · Elo 2410
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Manchester United
13th in Premier League · 7 pts from 7
- 21 OctLComo UEFA Champions League2371
- 18 OctDLeeds Premier League2376
- 13 OctLAtletico Madrid UEFA Champions League2365
- 10 OctDTottenham Premier League2404
- 20 SepDFulham Premier League2414
Aston Villa
12th in Premier League · 8 pts from 7
- 21 OctWViking UEFA Champions League2298
- 17 OctWNewcastle Premier League2328
- 14 OctWFenerbahçe UEFA Champions League2325
- 10 OctDBrentford Premier League2394
- 19 SepWTottenham Premier League2344
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 7 /7 | 53.1 | 0% | 10% | 1% | 8th |
| Aston Villa | 8 /7 | 55.8 | 0% | 16% | <1% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Manchester United: creative (how Michael Carrick plays) · Aston Villa: low-block (how Unai Emery plays)