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Premier League · Regular Season - 7

Manchester City 3–2 Ipswich

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Etihad Stadium, Manchester

Manchester City crestManchester CityTeam 2630
3–2
Full time
HT 2–1
Ipswich crestIpswichTeam 2154

Match story

Manchester City · draw · Ipswich

Before kick-off: 81% · 12% · 7%

Live chances: Manchester City 100%, draw 0%, Ipswich 0% at 90+13'1' · 0–0 · Manchester City 81%, draw 12%, Ipswich 7%2' · 0–0 · Manchester City 81%, draw 12%, Ipswich 7%3' · 0–0 · Manchester City 81%, draw 12%, Ipswich 7%4' · 0–0 · Manchester City 80%, draw 13%, Ipswich 7%5' · 0–0 · Manchester City 80%, draw 13%, Ipswich 7%6' · 0–0 · Manchester City 80%, draw 13%, Ipswich 7%7' · 0–0 · Manchester City 80%, draw 13%, Ipswich 7%8' · 0–0 · Manchester City 80%, draw 13%, Ipswich 7%9' · 0–0 · Manchester City 79%, draw 13%, Ipswich 7%10' · 0–0 · Manchester City 79%, draw 13%, Ipswich 8%11' · 0–0 · Manchester City 79%, draw 14%, Ipswich 8%12' · 0–0 · Manchester City 79%, draw 14%, Ipswich 8%13' · 0–0 · Manchester City 78%, draw 14%, Ipswich 8%14' · 0–0 · Manchester City 78%, draw 14%, Ipswich 8%15' · 0–0 · Manchester City 78%, draw 14%, Ipswich 8%16' · 0–0 · Manchester City 77%, draw 14%, Ipswich 8%17' · 0–0 · Manchester City 77%, draw 15%, Ipswich 8%18' · 0–0 · Manchester City 77%, draw 15%, Ipswich 8%19' · 1–0 · Manchester City 91%, draw 7%, Ipswich 2%20' · 1–0 · Manchester City 91%, draw 7%, Ipswich 2%21' · 1–0 · Manchester City 91%, draw 7%, Ipswich 2%22' · 1–1 · Manchester City 76%, draw 16%, Ipswich 9%24' · 1–1 · Manchester City 75%, draw 16%, Ipswich 9%25' · 1–1 · Manchester City 75%, draw 16%, Ipswich 9%26' · 1–1 · Manchester City 75%, draw 16%, Ipswich 9%27' · 1–1 · Manchester City 74%, draw 17%, Ipswich 9%28' · 1–1 · Manchester City 74%, draw 17%, Ipswich 9%29' · 1–1 · Manchester City 74%, draw 17%, Ipswich 9%30' · 1–1 · Manchester City 73%, draw 17%, Ipswich 9%31' · 1–1 · Manchester City 73%, draw 18%, Ipswich 9%33' · 1–1 · Manchester City 72%, draw 18%, Ipswich 10%34' · 1–1 · Manchester City 72%, draw 18%, Ipswich 10%35' · 1–1 · Manchester City 72%, draw 19%, Ipswich 10%35' · 2–1 · Manchester City 89%, draw 8%, Ipswich 3%37' · 2–1 · Manchester City 89%, draw 8%, Ipswich 3%39' · 2–1 · Manchester City 89%, draw 8%, Ipswich 3%41' · 2–1 · Manchester City 89%, draw 9%, Ipswich 3%42' · 2–1 · Manchester City 89%, draw 9%, Ipswich 3%44' · 2–1 · Manchester City 89%, draw 9%, Ipswich 3%45' · 2–1 · Manchester City 89%, draw 9%, Ipswich 3%45+1' · 2–1 · Manchester City 89%, draw 9%, Ipswich 3%45+2' · 2–1 · Manchester City 88%, draw 9%, Ipswich 3%45+3' · 2–1 · Manchester City 88%, draw 9%, Ipswich 2%HT · 2–1 · Manchester City 88%, draw 9%, Ipswich 2%46' · 2–1 · Manchester City 88%, draw 9%, Ipswich 2%47' · 2–1 · Manchester City 88%, draw 9%, Ipswich 2%48' · 2–1 · Manchester City 88%, draw 9%, Ipswich 2%49' · 2–1 · Manchester City 88%, draw 9%, Ipswich 2%50' · 2–1 · Manchester City 88%, draw 10%, Ipswich 2%51' · 2–1 · Manchester City 88%, draw 10%, Ipswich 2%52' · 2–1 · Manchester City 88%, draw 10%, Ipswich 2%53' · 2–1 · Manchester City 88%, draw 10%, Ipswich 2%54' · 2–1 · Manchester City 88%, draw 10%, Ipswich 2%55' · 2–1 · Manchester City 88%, draw 10%, Ipswich 2%56' · 2–1 · Manchester City 88%, draw 10%, Ipswich 2%57' · 2–1 · Manchester City 87%, draw 10%, Ipswich 2%58' · 2–1 · Manchester City 87%, draw 10%, Ipswich 2%59' · 2–1 · Manchester City 87%, draw 10%, Ipswich 2%60' · 2–1 · Manchester City 87%, draw 10%, Ipswich 2%61' · 2–1 · Manchester City 87%, draw 11%, Ipswich 2%62' · 2–1 · Manchester City 87%, draw 11%, Ipswich 2%63' · 2–1 · Manchester City 87%, draw 11%, Ipswich 2%64' · 2–1 · Manchester City 87%, draw 11%, Ipswich 2%65' · 2–1 · Manchester City 87%, draw 11%, Ipswich 2%66' · 2–1 · Manchester City 87%, draw 11%, Ipswich 2%67' · 2–1 · Manchester City 87%, draw 11%, Ipswich 2%68' · 2–1 · Manchester City 87%, draw 11%, Ipswich 2%69' · 2–1 · Manchester City 87%, draw 11%, Ipswich 2%70' · 3–1 · Manchester City 98%, draw 1%, Ipswich 0%71' · 3–1 · Manchester City 99%, draw 1%, Ipswich 0%72' · 3–1 · Manchester City 99%, draw 1%, Ipswich 0%73' · 3–1 · Manchester City 99%, draw 1%, Ipswich 0%74' · 3–1 · Manchester City 99%, draw 1%, Ipswich 0%75' · 3–1 · Manchester City 99%, draw 1%, Ipswich 0%76' · 3–1 · Manchester City 99%, draw 1%, Ipswich 0%77' · 3–1 · Manchester City 99%, draw 1%, Ipswich 0%78' · 3–1 · Manchester City 99%, draw 1%, Ipswich 0%79' · 3–1 · Manchester City 99%, draw 1%, Ipswich 0%80' · 3–1 · Manchester City 99%, draw 1%, Ipswich 0%81' · 3–1 · Manchester City 99%, draw 1%, Ipswich 0%82' · 3–1 · Manchester City 99%, draw 1%, Ipswich 0%83' · 3–1 · Manchester City 99%, draw 1%, Ipswich 0%84' · 3–1 · Manchester City 99%, draw 1%, Ipswich 0%85' · 3–1 · Manchester City 99%, draw 1%, Ipswich 0%86' · 4–1 · Manchester City 100%, draw 0%, Ipswich 0%87' · 4–1 · Manchester City 100%, draw 0%, Ipswich 0%88' · 3–1 · Manchester City 100%, draw 0%, Ipswich 0%89' · 3–1 · Manchester City 100%, draw 0%, Ipswich 0%90' · 3–1 · Manchester City 100%, draw 0%, Ipswich 0%90+1' · 3–1 · Manchester City 100%, draw 0%, Ipswich 0%90+2' · 3–2 · Manchester City 95%, draw 5%, Ipswich 0%90+3' · 3–2 · Manchester City 96%, draw 4%, Ipswich 0%90+4' · 3–2 · Manchester City 97%, draw 3%, Ipswich 0%90+5' · 3–2 · Manchester City 98%, draw 2%, Ipswich 0%90+6' · 3–2 · Manchester City 99%, draw 1%, Ipswich 0%90+7' · 3–2 · Manchester City 100%, draw 0%, Ipswich 0%90+8' · 3–2 · Manchester City 100%, draw 0%, Ipswich 0%90+9' · 3–2 · Manchester City 100%, draw 0%, Ipswich 0%90+10' · 3–2 · Manchester City 100%, draw 0%, Ipswich 0%90+11' · 3–2 · Manchester City 100%, draw 0%, Ipswich 0%90+12' · 3–2 · Manchester City 100%, draw 0%, Ipswich 0%90+13' · 3–2 · Manchester City 100%, draw 0%, Ipswich 0%

Last reading, 90+13': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Manchester City 81% to win: they did.

  1. 19'Manchester City:Phil Foden 2643 0* assist Jeremy Doku 2630 +9
  2. 21'Ipswich:Daizen Maeda 2175 −5 assist Abdoul Ouattara 2110 −1
  3. 34'Manchester City:Erling Haaland 2737 +7 assist Mateo Kovačić 2435 +4
  4. 50'Manchester City:Enzo Fernández 2563 +2 for Mateo Kovačić 2435 +4
  5. 61'Manchester City:Josko Gvardiol 2672 +1 for Nico O'Reilly 2634 +3
  6. 69'Manchester City:Erling Haaland 2737 +7 assist Iliman Ndiaye 2430 +6
  7. 71'Ipswich:Azor Matusiwa 2152 −9* for Florentino Luís 2066 −1
  8. 71'Ipswich:Abdul Fatawu Issahaku 2012 −8* for Daizen Maeda 2175 −5
  9. 73'Ipswich:Abdoul Ouattara 2110 −1
  10. 76'Manchester City:Abdukodir Khusanov 2598 +1 for Matheus Nunes 2761 +1
  11. 77'Manchester City:Elliot Anderson 2571 +1 for Phil Foden 2643 0*
  12. 77'Manchester City:Antoine Semenyo 2603 0 for Jeremy Doku 2630 +9
  13. 78'Ipswich:Zian Flemming 2030 −1 for Emersonn 1979 0
  14. 78'Ipswich:Chuba Akpom 1945 −3 for Julio Enciso 2230 −3
  15. 90'Ipswich:Zian Flemming 2030 −1 (pen.)
  16. 90+1'Ipswich:Jack Clarke 2113 0 for Jacob Greaves 2166 −10*
  17. 90+7'Manchester City:Josko Gvardiol 2672 +1
  18. 90+12'Ipswich:Leif Davis 2217 −3

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations4-2-3-1
GG. Donnarumma2691+3
DMatheus Nunes2761+1
DRúben Dias2704+7
DM. Guéhi2697+8
DN. O'Reilly2634+3
MM. Kovačić2435+4
MA. Bouaddi2278+8
MI. Ndiaye2430+6
MP. Foden26430*
MJ. Doku2630+9
FE. Haaland2737+7
CE. Maresca2600+8
GC. Walton2143−2
DD. O'Shea2267−4
DI. Diop2246−5
DJ. Greaves2166−10*
DL. Davis2217−3
MFlorentino2066−1
ME. Palacios2261−5
MA. Ouattara2110−1
MJ. Enciso2230−3
MD. Maeda2175−5
FEmersonn19790
CG. O'Neil2178−4
Before kick-off: 81% · 12% · 7%(Manchester City · draw · Ipswich)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 3–0 (9%); the result 3–2 had 4%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Manchester City €61.1M, Ipswich €11.4M.
  • Largest team-Elo gap of Premier League matchday 7: 439 points.
  • Draw chance was 15%, below the Premier League average of 27% this round.
  • Premier League: Rúben Dias was the highest-rated defender (2697).
  • Manchester City's expected eleven was in form: average +2.7 over 180 days.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Manchester City

1st in Premier League · 18 pts from 6

  • 14 OctLParis Saint Germain 2653
  • 11 OctWLiverpool 2628
  • 20 SepWSunderland 2621
  • 17 SepWNorwich 2296
  • 13 SepWManchester United 2628

Ipswich

10th in Premier League · 9 pts from 6

  • 10 OctWFulham 2144
  • 19 SepLEverton 2151
  • 15 SepLArsenal 2096
  • 12 SepWCrystal Palace 2139
  • 4 SepLLiverpool 2162

Season outlook

From the Premier League simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Manchester City18 /683.562%100%0%1st
Ipswich9 /642.00%<1%26%17th
Manchester City
Ipswich

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Premier League

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

E. Haaland
E. Haaland

Manchester City · +5.3 (Good) · Elo 2730

D. O'Shea
D. O'Shea

Ipswich · +4.5 (Good) · Elo 2271

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Enzo Maresca

Coach DNA: possession-based · creative

Gary Paul O'Neil

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Manchester City: possession-based · creative (how Enzo Maresca plays) · Ipswich: balanced profile (how Gary Paul O'Neil plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.