Premier League · Regular Season - 11
Manchester City vs Fulham
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 12:30 UTC · Etihad Stadium, Manchester
Manchester City host Fulham on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Manchester City 74%, draw 17%, Fulham 10%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Manchester City €60.9M, Fulham €15.9M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Premier League matchday 11: 390 points.
- Draw chance 17%, below the Premier League average of 26% this round.
- Premier League: M. Guéhi is the highest-rated defender (2681).
- Style contrast in dribbling (Premier League): Manchester City rank #1 of 20, Fulham #19.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Manchester City goals first.
- 2–012%
- 1–010%
- 3–010%
- 2–19%
- 1–18%
- 3–17%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–0expected 1.2 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 5.3 pts
Team Elo: Manchester City 2585 · Fulham 2195
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Manchester City · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +9.0 (Elite) · Elo 2562
Fulham · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Elite) · Elo 2281
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Manchester City
3rd in Premier League · 21 pts from 10
- 7 NovLNottingham Forest Premier League2617
- 4 NovWRB Leipzig UEFA Champions League2611
- 31 OctLBrighton Premier League2587
- 28 OctDBrighton England League Cup2345
- 24 OctLAston Villa Premier League2631
Fulham
15th in Premier League · 10 pts from 10
- 7 NovDNewcastle Premier League2242
- 31 OctDAston Villa Premier League2234
- 28 OctLCrystal Palace England League Cup2191
- 24 OctWCoventry Premier League2181
- 17 OctWHull City Premier League2194
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 21 /10 | 77.0 | 20% | 98% | 0% | 2nd |
| Fulham | 10 /10 | 39.9 | 0% | 0% | 29% | 17th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Manchester City: possession-based · creative (how Enzo Maresca plays) · Fulham: balanced profile (how Alvaro Arbeloa plays)