Premier League · Regular Season - 9
Manchester City vs Brighton
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Etihad Stadium, Manchester
Manchester City host Brighton on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Manchester City 61%, draw 23%, Brighton 16%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Manchester City €58.9M, Brighton €28.9M.
- Premier League: Rúben Dias is the highest-rated defender (2704).
- Style contrast in discipline (Premier League): Manchester City rank #1 of 20, Brighton #17.
- Manchester City's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 over 180 days.
- Brighton have won their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Manchester City goals first.
- 1–111%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–07%
- 3–17%
- Other scores46%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 1.0 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 4.5 pts
Team Elo: Manchester City 2618 · Brighton 2383
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Manchester City · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +8.1 (Elite) · Elo 2571
Brighton · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Good) · Elo 2533
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Manchester City
1st in Premier League · 21 pts from 7
- 17 OctWIpswich Premier League2592
- 14 OctLParis Saint Germain UEFA Champions League2653
- 11 OctWLiverpool Premier League2628
- 20 SepWSunderland Premier League2621
- 17 SepWNorwich England League Cup2296
Brighton
3rd in Premier League · 16 pts from 7
- 18 OctWCrystal Palace Premier League2393
- 15 OctWKauno Žalgiris UEFA Conference League2254
- 10 OctWSunderland Premier League2384
- 19 SepWArsenal Premier League2309
- 16 SepWManchester United England League Cup2153
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 21 /7 | 85.1 | 56% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Brighton | 16 /7 | 64.4 | 1% | 63% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Manchester City: possession-based · creative (how Enzo Maresca plays) · Brighton: balanced profile (how Fabian Hürzeler plays)