Premier Soccer League · Regular Season - 9
Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 13:30 UTC · Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium, Pretoria
Mamelodi Sundowns host Durban City on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (Premier Soccer League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Mamelodi Sundowns 77%, draw 15%, Durban City 8%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Mamelodi Sundowns €1.2M, Durban City €204K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Premier Soccer League matchday 9: 435 points.
- Draw chance 15%, below the Premier Soccer League average of 26% this round.
- Premier Soccer League: R. Williams is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1873).
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (Premier Soccer League): Mamelodi Sundowns rank #17 of 17, Durban City #3.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Mamelodi Sundowns goals first.
- 2–010%
- 3–010%
- 2–19%
- 3–18%
- 1–17%
- 1–07%
- Other scores49%
Team Elo: Mamelodi Sundowns 1706 · Durban City 1271
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Mamelodi Sundowns · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Good) · Elo 1827
Durban City · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Good) · Elo 1342
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Mamelodi Sundowns
1st in Premier Soccer League · 23 pts from 9
- 13 OctWRichards Bay South Africa PSL1691
- 19 SepWAl-Ahli Jeddah FIFA Intercontinental Cup1729
- 12 SepDChippa United South Africa PSL1689
- 9 SepWSiwelele South Africa PSL1688
- 6 SepWGolden Arrows South Africa PSL1727
Durban City
10th in Premier Soccer League · 7 pts from 8
- 13 OctLAmazulu South Africa PSL1294
- 20 SepDMilford FC South Africa PSL1236
- 17 SepLOrlando Pirates South Africa PSL1283
- 1 SepDStellenbosch South Africa PSL1280
- 25 AugWKruger United South Africa PSL1216
Season outlook
From the Premier Soccer League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mamelodi Sundowns | 23 /9 | 70.2 | 68% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Durban City | 7 /8 | 35.4 | 0% | 1% | 8% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · low-block
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Mamelodi Sundowns: possession-based · low-block (how José Miguel Azevedo Cardoso plays) · Durban City: balanced profile (how Eric Tinkler plays)