La Liga · Regular Season - 8
Malaga 1–1 Espanyol
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · La Rosaleda, Malaga
MalagaTeam 1813EspanyolTeam 1966We gave Espanyol 38% to win: it ended in a draw.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 33% · 30% · 38%(Malaga · draw · Espanyol)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%), and that was the result.
- Average value of the starting XI: Malaga €1.9M, Espanyol €6.0M.
- Malaga were without 1 expected starter: José Salinas (1912).
- Style contrast in dribbling (La Liga): Malaga ranked #3 of 20, Espanyol #20.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Malaga
20th in La Liga · 3 pts from 7
- 20 SepLGetafe La Liga1791
- 17 SepLVillarreal La Liga1865
- 13 SepDCelta Vigo La Liga1871
- 6 SepDLevante La Liga1856
- 30 AugLReal Madrid La Liga1856
Espanyol
15th in La Liga · 7 pts from 7
- 18 SepLElche La Liga1966
- 15 SepLRayo Vallecano La Liga1960
- 12 SepWOsasuna La Liga1934
- 6 SepDSevilla La Liga1954
- 29 AugLReal Sociedad La Liga1984
Season outlook
From the La Liga simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga | 3 /7 | 30.3 | 0% | 0% | 80% | 20th |
| Espanyol | 7 /7 | 42.4 | 0% | 0% | 15% | 13th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Malaga · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1939
Espanyol · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1989
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Malaga: dribble-heavy (how Juan Francisco Funes Arjona plays) · Espanyol: direct (how José Manuel González Álvarez plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.