Liga Pro · Championship Group - 3
Macara 1–0 Independiente del Valle
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Estadio Bellavista, Ambato
MacaraTeam 1642Independiente del ValleTeam 1861- augustin campana 59'
We gave Independiente del Valle 47% to win: Macara won.
- 41'Junior Sornoza 1825 −5 (penalty missed)Independiente del Valle:Junior Sornoza 1825 −5 (penalty missed)
- augustin campana 1779 +28 assist M. Viera 1757 +3059'Macara:augustin campana 1779 +28 assist M. Viera 1757 +30
- Franco Posse 1803 +964'Macara:Franco Posse 1803 +9
- 65'Matias Mijail Perello 1892 −2Independiente del Valle:Matias Mijail Perello 1892 −2
- 66'Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios for Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez 1917 −3Independiente del Valle:Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios for Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez 1917 −3
- 67'Ronald Briones 1888 −1 for Junior Sornoza 1825 −5Independiente del Valle:Ronald Briones 1888 −1 for Junior Sornoza 1825 −5
- Jose Marrufo 1755 +3270'Macara:Jose Marrufo 1755 +32
- M. Viera 1757 +3075'Macara:M. Viera 1757 +30
- 78'Ronald Briones 1888 −1Independiente del Valle:Ronald Briones 1888 −1
- 79'Djorkaeff Reascos 1806 −1 for Carlos González 1746 −5Independiente del Valle:Djorkaeff Reascos 1806 −1 for Carlos González 1746 −5
- 79'Yandri Vásquez 1660 −8* for Hugo Quintana 1857 0Independiente del Valle:Yandri Vásquez 1660 −8* for Hugo Quintana 1857 0
- Luis Loor 1639 −3 for M. Viera 1757 +3081'Macara:Luis Loor 1639 −3 for M. Viera 1757 +30
- 82'Edwin Quintero 1621 0 for Matias Mijail Perello 1892 −2Independiente del Valle:Edwin Quintero 1621 0 for Matias Mijail Perello 1892 −2
- Marlon Medranda 1556 +2 for Jean Estacio 1711 +29*86'Macara:Marlon Medranda 1556 +2 for Jean Estacio 1711 +29*
- Carlos Caicedo 1355 +2 for Martín Alejandro Tello Escobar 1756 +3286'Macara:Carlos Caicedo 1355 +2 for Martín Alejandro Tello Escobar 1756 +32
- J. Klinger 1586 −7* for Jordán Josué Mohor Nazareno 1678 +4790+3'Macara:J. Klinger 1586 −7* for Jordán Josué Mohor Nazareno 1678 +47
- Tono Espinoza 1512 for augustin campana 1779 +2890+3'Macara:Tono Espinoza 1512 for augustin campana 1779 +28
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 25% · 28% · 47%(Macara · draw · Independiente del Valle)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 1–0 had 6%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Macara €491K, Independiente del Valle €1.3M.
- Liga Pro: A. Quintana was the highest-rated goalkeeper (1943).
- Style contrast in possession (Liga Pro): Macara ranked #14 of 16, Independiente del Valle #2.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Macara
3rd in Liga Pro · 51 pts from 30
- 11 OctWUniversidad Catolica Ecuador Liga Pro1667
- 19 SepWAucas Ecuador Liga Pro1672
- 13 SepWEmelec Ecuador Liga Pro1652
- 5 SepLIndependiente del Valle Ecuador Liga Pro1649
- 2 SepWManta FC Ecuador Liga Pro1632
Independiente del Valle
1st in Liga Pro · 74 pts from 30
- 10 OctWAucas Ecuador Liga Pro1871
- 18 SepDFlamengo Copa Libertadores1859
- 13 SepWLibertad Ecuador Liga Pro1744
- 11 SepLFlamengo Copa Libertadores1864
- 5 SepWMacara Ecuador Liga Pro1766
Season outlook
From the Liga Pro simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macara | 57 /32 | 67.2 | 0% | 98% | 0% | 2nd |
| Independiente del Valle | 77 /31 | 90.4 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Macara · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.7 (Good) · Elo 1688
Independiente del Valle · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1918
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Macara: balanced profile (how Guillermo Óscar Sanguinetti Giordano plays) · Independiente del Valle: possession-based (how Joaquin Papa plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.