League One · Regular Season - 13
Luton vs Leicester
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 11:30 UTC · Kenilworth Road, Luton
Luton host Leicester on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (League One); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Luton 43%, draw 28%, Leicester 29%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Luton €604K, Leicester €2.1M.
- League One: H. Souttar is the highest-rated defender (2119).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Luton goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Luton 1856 · Leicester 1851
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Luton · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1888
Leicester · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Good) · Elo 2119
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Luton
16th in League One · 11 pts from 9
- 17 OctLMilton Keynes Dons England League One1824
- 10 OctWWycombe England League One1783
- 3 OctDColchester England EFL Trophy1729
- 22 SepWIpswich Town U21 England EFL Trophy1767
- 19 SepLBradford England League One1807
Leicester
14th in League One · 12 pts from 9
- 17 OctWDoncaster England League One1832
- 10 OctLPeterborough England League One1761
- 6 OctLStevenage England EFL Trophy1728
- 22 SepWFulham U21 England EFL Trophy1706
- 19 SepDBarnsley England League One1753
Season outlook
From the League One simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luton | 11 /9 | 65.7 | 3% | 18% | 1% | 8th |
| Leicester | 12 /9 | 68.6 | 5% | 27% | 1% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: possession-based · low-block
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Luton: balanced profile (how Jack Andrew Garry Wilshere plays) · Leicester: balanced profile (how Russell Martin plays)