League One · Regular Season - 15
Luton vs Cambridge United
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Kenilworth Road, Luton
Luton host Cambridge United on Sat 14 Nov 2026 (League One); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Luton 51%, draw 27%, Cambridge United 23%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Luton €634K, Cambridge United €421K.
- Style contrast in dribbling (League One): Luton rank #1 of 24, Cambridge United #21.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Luton goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–26%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Luton 1896 · Cambridge United 1795
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Luton · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Elite) · Elo 1956
Cambridge United · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1775
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Luton
8th in League One · 20 pts from 12
- 27 OctWDoncaster England League One1898
- 24 OctWLeicester England League One1832
- 20 OctWBarnsley England League One1813
- 17 OctLMilton Keynes Dons England League One1824
- 10 OctWWycombe England League One1783
Cambridge United
7th in League One · 21 pts from 13
- 27 OctDSheffield Wednesday England League One1775
- 24 OctLPlymouth England League One1824
- 20 OctDWycombe England League One1815
- 17 OctWBarnsley England League One1794
- 10 OctWBlackpool England League One1779
Season outlook
From the League One simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luton | 20 /12 | 74.0 | 13% | 47% | 0% | 1st |
| Cambridge United | 21 /13 | 65.5 | 1% | 10% | <1% | 11th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Luton: balanced profile (how J. Wilshere plays) · Cambridge United: balanced profile (how Neil Harris plays)