League One · Regular Season - 12
Luton vs Barnsley
Tue 20 Oct 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Kenilworth Road, Luton
Luton host Barnsley on Tue 20 Oct 2026 (League One); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Luton 56%, draw 25%, Barnsley 19%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Luton €604K, Barnsley €426K.
- Barnsley's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.8 over 180 days.
- Only 2 of Barnsley's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Luton goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–06%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Luton 1856 · Barnsley 1689
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Luton · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1888
Barnsley · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.0 (Average) · Elo 1709
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Luton
16th in League One · 11 pts from 9
- 17 OctLMilton Keynes Dons England League One1824
- 10 OctWWycombe England League One1783
- 3 OctDColchester England EFL Trophy1729
- 22 SepWIpswich Town U21 England EFL Trophy1767
- 19 SepLBradford England League One1807
Barnsley
21st in League One · 8 pts from 9
- 17 OctLCambridge United England League One1723
- 10 OctLStockport County England League One1717
- 6 OctLFleetwood Town England EFL Trophy1473
- 22 SepLLeeds United U21 England EFL Trophy1606
- 19 SepDLeicester England League One1707
Season outlook
From the League One simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luton | 11 /9 | 65.7 | 3% | 18% | 1% | 8th |
| Barnsley | 8 /9 | 48.6 | 0% | 0% | 46% | 24th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: direct · dribble-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Luton: balanced profile (how Jack Andrew Garry Wilshere plays) · Barnsley: balanced profile (how Daniel Stendel plays)