Segunda Liga · Regular Season - 9
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 14:00 UTC
Lusitânia Lourosa host Farense on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (Segunda Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Lusitânia Lourosa 32%, draw 29%, Farense 39%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Lusitânia Lourosa €262K, Farense €349K.
- Lusitânia Lourosa are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Lusitânia Lourosa goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 0–09%
- 1–29%
- 1–08%
- 2–18%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Lusitânia Lourosa 1484 · Farense 1612
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Farense · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1557
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Lusitânia Lourosa
1st in Segunda Liga · 17 pts from 7
- 11 OctDChaves Liga Portugal 21500
- 14 SepWSporting CP B Liga Portugal 21478
- 7 SepWAVS Liga Portugal 21447
- 29 AugWAcademica Liga Portugal 21438
- 10 AugWFC Porto B Liga Portugal 21429
Farense
3rd in Segunda Liga · 14 pts from 7
- 11 OctWFeirense Liga Portugal 21622
- 4 OctWChaves Liga Portugal 21605
- 13 SepDAVS Liga Portugal 21574
- 30 AugLSporting CP B Liga Portugal 21578
- 16 AugWFC Porto B Liga Portugal 21581
Season outlook
From the Segunda Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lusitânia Lourosa | 17 /7 | 51.4 | 6% | 35% | 2% | 4th |
| Farense | 14 /7 | 57.4 | 26% | 71% | <1% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: direct · low-volume