Segunda Liga · Regular Season - 7
Lusitânia Lourosa 1–1 Chaves
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 10:00 UTC · Estadio Do Lusitania, Lorosa
Lusitânia LourosaTeam 1493
ChavesTeam 1483- Micael correia 90+5'
- Andre Rodrigues 44'
We gave Lusitânia Lourosa 42% to win: it ended in a draw.
- Ricardinho –7'
Lusitânia Lourosa:Ricardinho – - 12'Tiago Simões –
Chaves:Tiago Simões – - João Santos –30'
Lusitânia Lourosa:João Santos – - 44'Andre Rodrigues – assist Tomás Morais Costa –
Chaves:Andre Rodrigues – assist Tomás Morais Costa – - 45+1'João Valido –
Chaves:João Valido – - Micael correia for Saliou Mandiang –60'
Lusitânia Lourosa:Micael correia for Saliou Mandiang – - Miguel Teixeira – for Arsénio Nunes –60'
Lusitânia Lourosa:Miguel Teixeira – for Arsénio Nunes – - 60'Marcos André Paulino Maia – for Tomás Morais Costa –
Chaves:Marcos André Paulino Maia – for Tomás Morais Costa – - 69'Mamadou Tounkara – for Néstor Araujo –
Chaves:Mamadou Tounkara – for Néstor Araujo – - 69'Gabriel Souza da Silva – for Wilson Tavares –
Chaves:Gabriel Souza da Silva – for Wilson Tavares – - 69'Pedro Pelágio – for Andre Rodrigues –
Chaves:Pedro Pelágio – for Andre Rodrigues – - Arsénio Nunes –78'
Lusitânia Lourosa:Arsénio Nunes – - João Silva – for João Santos –79'
Lusitânia Lourosa:João Silva – for João Santos – - Iuri Moreira for Ricardinho –80'
Lusitânia Lourosa:Iuri Moreira for Ricardinho – - 80'Kiko Pereira – for Robyn Esajas –
Chaves:Kiko Pereira – for Robyn Esajas – - Daniel Paulo dos Santos – for Paulo Miguel·Gomes Ferreira –86'
Lusitânia Lourosa:Daniel Paulo dos Santos – for Paulo Miguel·Gomes Ferreira – - 88'Kiko Pereira –
Chaves:Kiko Pereira – - Micael correia90+5'
Lusitânia Lourosa:Micael correia
Before kick-off (provisional): 42% · 28% · 29%(Lusitânia Lourosa · draw · Chaves)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%), and that was the result.
- Average value of the expected XI: Lusitânia Lourosa €278K, Chaves €303K.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Lusitânia Lourosa
1st in Segunda Liga · 16 pts from 6
- 14 SepWSporting CP B Liga Portugal 21478
- 7 SepWAVS Liga Portugal 21447
- 29 AugWAcademica Liga Portugal 21438
- 10 AugWFC Porto B Liga Portugal 21429
- 17 MayLLeixoes Liga Portugal 21365
Chaves
17th in Segunda Liga · 4 pts from 6
- 4 OctLFarense Liga Portugal 21509
- 30 AugLFelgueiras 1932 Liga Portugal 21444
- 8 AugLAcademica Liga Portugal 21419
- 15 MayWMaritimo Liga Portugal 21457
- 9 MayLLeixoes Liga Portugal 21463
Season outlook
From the Segunda Liga simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lusitânia Lourosa | 16 /6 | 53.0 | 9% | 40% | 1% | 2nd |
| Chaves | 4 /6 | 40.2 | <1% | 2% | 32% | 16th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Chaves · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1669
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –