First League · Regular Season - 15
Ludogorets vs Dunav Ruse
Mon 23 Nov 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Huvepharma Arena, Razgrad
Ludogorets host Dunav Ruse on Mon 23 Nov 2026 (First League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Ludogorets 80%, draw 13%, Dunav Ruse 7%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Ludogorets €1.1M, Dunav Ruse €165K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of First League matchday 15: 485 points.
- Draw chance 13%, below the First League average of 24% this round.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Ludogorets goals first.
- 2–015%
- 3–012%
- 1–012%
- 2–19%
- 4–08%
- 3–17%
- Other scores37%
Team Elo: Ludogorets 1771 · Dunav Ruse 1286
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Ludogorets · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Good) · Elo 1821
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Ludogorets
3rd in First League · 30 pts from 13
- 7 NovDCSKA 1948 Bulgarian First League1782
- 31 OctWLokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgarian First League1802
- 26 OctLCSKA Sofia Bulgarian First League1806
- 12 OctWArda Kardzhali Bulgarian First League1791
- 14 SepWSeptemvri Sofia Bulgarian First League1776
Dunav Ruse
10th in First League · 12 pts from 14
- 6 NovDBotev Plovdiv Bulgarian First League1292
- 31 OctLLevski Sofia Bulgarian First League1287
- 24 OctWSpartak Varna Bulgarian First League1231
- 11 OctWSeptemvri Sofia Bulgarian First League1169
- 19 SepDBotev Vratsa Bulgarian First League1179
Season outlook
From the First League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludogorets | 30 /13 | 54.5 | 14% | 99% | 0% | 3rd |
| Dunav Ruse | 12 /14 | 22.8 | 0% | 0% | 57% | 13th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 14th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –